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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, December 30, 2023
The odds of triggering an avalanche are diminishing with each passing day but an isolated or MODERATE danger still exists on steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. In these areas, slabs of wind drifted snow sitting on top of weak, sugary, faceted snow present the biggest threat. Suspect slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance, or that sound hollow underneath.
The snowpack is still very shallow and rocks, logs, and stumps are a very real hazard right now.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Road Conditions: The road is plowed but the surface remains soft. AWD with good tires are required.
Grooming: Gavin groomed over Geyser Pass yesterday, and Ben groomed and set classic track into Gold Basin.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 42" Base Depth at Gold Basin 23"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 5-15 Temp 20˚ F
Weather
Clear skies this morning should give way to increasing clouds as an approaching, weak shortwave affects points north. Winds from the SW will be mostly light, and high temps will be in the mid 30's. Sunday looks sunny. A split flow pattern remains in place but we'll see a slight chance for snow mid-week. Long range models still don't promise much.
General Conditions
Conditions continue to deteriorate after last weekend's 9" and there is not enough coverage for serious skiing and riding. The snowpack is weak and faceting, and not supportive enough to keep you on top of the rocks. Strong northerly winds last weekend, and again mid-week added insult to injury. In the alpine, you will find a mix of scoured slopes alternating with a variety of wind-sculpted snow, old hard wind crusts and slabs, and shallow, sensitive, soft slabs of recently wind-drifted snow.
Average snow depth on this date over the last five years is 40". The last el Nino Winter was 2018/2019 and we had a very dry December with a base depth of 29" on Christmas Day, 4" more than this year. Then it started snowing and didn't stop. Keep the dream alive!
12/30/2022 50"
12/30/2021 40"
12/30/2020 32"
12/30/2019 43"
12/30/2018 35"
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Dave Garcia sent in these photos of low coverage and wind damaged surface snow. 12/29/2023
Recent Avalanches
On Wednesday, Dave Garcia's party observed this small natural avalanche involving wind-drifted snow. This slide most likely occurred on Sunday or Monday during the peak of the strong winds. Though the odds are decreasing, you may still be able to trigger an avalanche like this on steep, notherly aspects where old slabs of wind drifted snow are sitting on top of weak, sugary facets.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The likelihood of triggering an avalanche is diminishing, however, the places where you could trigger an avalanche are about the only places that have enough snow to ride. On steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects, both soft and hard slabs of drifted snow are sitting on top of loose, sugary, faceted snow. You may still be able to trigger an avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer that is big enough to take you for a ride, rake you across rocks, or carry you over a cliff. Suspect steep, wind loaded slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance or that sound hollow underneath.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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