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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 31, 2023
The odds of triggering an avalanche are diminishing with each passing day. An isolated or MODERATE danger still exists on steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. In these areas, old, hard slabs of wind drifted snow sitting on top of weak, sugary, faceted snow present the biggest threat. Suspect slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance, or that sound hollow underneath. Most other terrain has LOW danger.
The snowpack is still very shallow and rocks, logs, and stumps are a very real hazard right now.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Road Conditions: The road is plowed but the surface remains soft. AWD with good tires are required.
Grooming: Trails were groomed on Friday. The Geyser Pass Road has seen a lot of traffic. Gold Basin offers the best conditions.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 42" Base Depth at Gold Basin 23"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SE 15-20 Temp 20˚ F
Weather
A weak shortwave has brought high clouds to the region and possibly a few snowflakes to the mountains of Central Colorado. It should clear out pretty quick bringing mostly sunny skies, light westerly winds, and high temps of around 30 today. Split flow pattern continues with storms going well north or south of our area. Midweek brings a chance for flurries, but the next glimmer of hope for change remains about a week away.
General Conditions
Conditions continue to deteriorate after last weekend's 9" and there is not enough coverage for serious skiing and riding. The snowpack is weak and faceting, and not supportive enough to keep you on top of the rocks. Strong northerly winds last weekend, and again mid-week added insult to injury. In the alpine, you will find a mix of scoured slopes alternating with a variety of wind-sculpted snow, old hard wind crusts and slabs, and shallow, sensitive, soft slabs of recently wind-drifted snow.
Average snow depth for rthe end of December over the last five years is 40". The last el Nino Winter was 2018/2019 and we had a very dry December with a base depth of 29" on Christmas Day, 4" more than this year. Then it started snowing and didn't stop. Keep the dream alive!
12/30/2022 50"
12/30/2021 40"
12/30/2020 32"
12/30/2019 43"
12/30/2018 35"
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Dave Garcia sent in these photos of low coverage and wind damaged surface snow. 12/29/2023
Recent Avalanches
This small avalanche is old news, but it illustrates the avalanche type and place you still need to be wary of.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The likelihood of triggering an avalanche is diminishing, however, the places where you could trigger an avalanche are about the only places that have enough snow to ride. On steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects, both soft and hard slabs of drifted snow are sitting on top of loose, sugary, faceted snow. You may still be able to trigger an avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer that is big enough to take you for a ride, rake you across rocks, or carry you over a cliff. Suspect steep, wind loaded slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance or that sound hollow underneath.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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