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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, February 18, 2023
A MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving soft slabs of wind drifted snow primarily on northerly aspects above treeline. In some areas, recent and older slabs may be overlying a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Human triggered avalanches 1'-2' deep are possible in these areas. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and the surface is snowpacked.
Grooming: Gold Basin through Geyser Pass were groomed on Thursday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 1" Season Total Snow 198" Base Depth at Gold Basin 71"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak S 15-20 Temp 18 F
Weather
Overnight, SE winds cranked for several hours in the 30-35 mph range with gusts near 40. They've backed off a bit this morning. Today, look for mostly sunny skies, light to moderate SW winds, and high temps in the mid 20's. Sunday looks like more of the same with a significant change in the weather coming on Tuesday.

General Conditions
In my travels to the Abajo's yesterday I continued to find good powder conditions though it warmed up enough to melt the surface on southerly aspects and most will be crusted over this morning. In our travels across the La Sals on snow machines Thursday, we found great powder snow and we observed no signs of instability although we avoided steep, wind drifted slopes above treeline. North facing slopes still looked fat with recent wind drifts, and I'm still a little baffled by the distribution of a weak, faceted layer that keeps turning up from time to time in these areas. For the time being, I'm going to keep it dialed back until I have a better handle on this.

Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported. See the La Sal Avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
An accumulated foot of snow and moderate to strong winds on Tuesday night formed soft slabs of drifted snow on all aspects near and above treeline. Southerly winds last night continued to blow and drift snow. The deepest, and most widespread drifts can be found on northerly aspects and this is your primary area of concern. Wind drifts are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance. They may also feel dense or hollow underneath, and cracking is a sign of instability.
In my travels on Wednesday, I was able to crack out numerous drifts such as this on all aspects. Slabs of drifted snow are gaining strength and are less sensitive to weight of a skier or rider, but they may release once you are further on to a slope. Approach suspected wind drifted slopes with caution, and avoid areas with steep convexities or blind "break-overs."
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unfortunately, a layer of weak, faceted snow that formed on the old snow surface is now turning up too often to be ignored. The tricky part is that it doesn't exist everywhere, and in some cases it's lying under older wind slabs. Dave Garcia and Chris Benson have both detailed it in their most recent observations. In my travels on Wednesday, I discovered a weak layer of faceted snow on a northerly aspect around 11,000'. On a nearby NE aspect I didn't find this layer, and I didn't find it in my travels over in Dark Canyon yesterday. What this means is that for the time being, you're going to need to do a slope by slope analysis if you're thinking about into steep, northerly facing terrain.
I've highlighted the weak layer of faceted snow I found here by pressing into it with my hand. This is on a N aspect at 11,000'.
I dug this pit on a nearby NE aspect at 11,000' and didn't find the weak layer.
Additional Information
Are you wondering how cell phones and other electronic devices can interfere with your avalanche transceiver? The "20/50 Rule" is that you want your beacon 20cm (8") away from other electronics while transmitting and 50cm (20") away from electronics while searching. Get the full scoop here.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.