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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, February 19, 2023
A MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow primarily on northerly aspects near and above treeline. In some of these areas, wind slabs may be overlying a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow and human triggered avalanches 1'-2' deep are possible. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and the surface is snowpacked.
Grooming: Gold Basin through Geyser Pass were groomed on Thursday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 198" Base Depth at Gold Basin 71"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak SW 20-25 G30 Temp 20 F
Weather
Southerly winds have been a bit of a headache over the last 36 hours and they blew a little stronger than I anticipated yesterday. Today we'll continue to see breezy WSW winds as a weak shortwave moves by to the north and a southern branch of the jet stream tracks through the 4 Corners. Skies will be mostly sunny and high temps will be in the low 20's. Tomorrow will be sunny with a decrease in winds. By Monday night, winds pick up again as a deep trough begins to spread through the Great Basin with moisture arriving to our area late Tuesday. Strong winds and heavy snow are forecasted through Wednesday with unsettled weather remaining through the week.
General Conditions
The powder party is winding down. Travis Nauman and co. were out yesterday and he reported variable conditions including sun crusts as well as wind affected snow courtesy of "Uncle Gusty." Judging from his photo, they were still able to find some soft snow, but the more sheltered the terrain, the better your chances for finding good snow. They also noticed fresh slabs of wind drifted snow being built on northerly aspects near and above treeline, and they confirmed the spotty existence of the weak, faceted layer we've been tracking. Read his full observation here. Nevertheless, folks have been skiing bigger lines without incident. To stay safe, avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, and if you haven't dug down to look for the faceted layer, hope it isn't on the slope you are choosing to ride as you may trigger an avalanche a foot or more deep.
Good snow for good skiers? Blowing and drifting snow near treeline. Travis Nauman photo.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported. See the La Sal Avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southwesterly winds continue to drift snow on to north and easterly aspects building fresh slabs that may be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. Look for them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub ridges. In some areas, wind drifts old and new are overlying a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow that formed during the dry period earlier this month. This condition isn't widespread, and the only way you will know for sure is to dig down and look. See more on this below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unfortunately, a layer of weak, faceted snow is turning up too often to be ignored. The tricky part is that it doesn't exist everywhere, and in some cases it's lying under older wind slabs. Local observers have been helping us search for this weak layer and Travis Nauman found it in several areas yesterday while also confirming that it's not on every slope. What this means is that for the time being, you're going to need to do a slope by slope analysis if you're thinking about getting into steep, northerly facing terrain. In the longer term, let's hope we get enough snow this week to give it a test.
In my travels last week I found this layer of faceted snow on some slopes but not others. In the photo above I've highlighted the weak layer by pressing into it with my hand. This is on a N aspect at 11,000'.
I dug this pit on a nearby NE aspect at 11,000' and didn't find the weak layer. The "here but not there" nature of the weak layer makes things tricky and I recommend a slope by slope analysis if you are considering riding steep, northerly facing terrain.
Additional Information
Are you wondering how cell phones and other electronic devices can interfere with your avalanche transceiver? The "20/50 Rule" is that you want your beacon 20cm (8") away from other electronics while transmitting and 50cm (20") away from electronics while searching. Get the full scoop here.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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