Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, January 5, 2023
The overall avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE today.
The snowpack is slowly stabilizing but human triggered avalanches are still likely today.
Give the snowpack some more time before getting onto steep slopes.
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Considerable
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Wednesday turned into a spectacular day in the mountains with sun filtering through thin high clouds. Temperatures briefly made it into the upper 20s and have dropped back to around 20˚F. Wind has been from the southwest with light to moderate speeds. Riding conditions remain top notch. South and southwest facing slopes became slightly damp from the sun on Wednesday and you may find a melt/freeze crust.
Mountain Weather: We'll have cloudy skies today with the chance for snowfall late this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s and wind will be from the southwest with moderate speeds possibly increasing a bit later on. A storm moves through tonight and into Friday which should bring 4 to 8 inches of new snow.
Recent Avalanches
No new recent avalanches have been observed or reported but during the clearing on Wednesday, there was visual evidence of a natural avalanche cycle from the last storm. I would describe the avalanches as "pockety" in that they were not cracking out wide across entire avalanche paths. There is no doubt that they were breaking deep into the old facets from November. There was snow on top of the fracture lines and debris which tells me the cycle occurred sometime Saturday or Sunday. PHOTO: Brett Kobernik, South Fork, Spring City Canyon
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There is no doubt that the snowpack is gaining strength. The layers from the recent large storm are incredibly strong already. This is making it harder to collapse and trigger the November Persistent Weak Layer deep in the snowpack. What I don't like though is the weak layer is still down there. I want to see it gain some more strength before I start trusting it not to avalanche on me. It's gaining strength but it is a slow process.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.