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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Tuesday morning, December 27, 2022
Expect rapidly rising avalanche danger today as a moist Pacific storm impacts the region. Areas with CONSIDERABLE danger already exist on many slopes with slabs of wind drifted snow overlaying buried persistent weak layers buried 1 to 4 feet deep. Dangerous avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance or below.
Today, heavy snowfall and drifting will cause rapidly rising danger at upper elevations, while warm temperatures and heavy rain could cause significant natural wet avalanches at lower elevations. HIGH avalanche danger could develop in some areas by evening and will likely develop on many slopes at all elevations tonight, with large and long running natural avalanches possible.
  • People should stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Avalanche Watch
What The avalanche danger for the warning area will rise to HIGH by tomorrow morning
When In effect from 6am MST this morning to 6am MST Wednesday
Where For the the Bear River Range in Northern Utah and Southeast Idaho.
Impacts Heavy snow, drifting from strong southwest winds, and rain at lower elevations will overload slopes with widespread buried persistent weak layers and cause rapidly rising avalanche danger. HIGH avalanche danger will develop at all elevations, with both dangerous human triggered and large and long running natural avalanches becoming likely. People should stay off and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Warning Times Tuesday, December 27, 2022 - 6:00am to Wednesday, December 28, 2022 - 6:00am
Special Announcements
As the end of the year approaches, please consider a donation to the UAC to support avalanche forecasting.
Didn’t get what you want for Christmas? Do your loved ones simply give you money for the holidays and say “Go buy something for yourself?” Support the UAC and get a great gift for yourself or your loved one at our Holiday Auction. The auction closes at 8:00 PM MT on January 2, 2023.
Weather and Snow
Last week's winds and snowfall created widespread slabs of wind drifted snow that overloaded a buried persistent weak layer buried 1 to 4 feet deep. The crazy winds and a bit of freezing rain in the past couple days have done a number on snow surface conditions, and there's not really much in the way of nice powder to be found these days. The good news is that a prolonged winter storm is headed our way this week, and we could get lots of snow in the mountains.
It's far too warm this morning, with 38° F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel and there is 47 inches of total snow.
  • Expect heavy snow up high and rain down low in the mountains today, with 8500' high temperatures already surpassing the 35° F in the forecast. 8 to 12 inches could accumulate by this evening.
  • Temperatures should drop into the teens, and another 13 to 19 inches of accumulation is forecast for upper elevation slopes tonight!
  • We should see things let up a bit on Wednesday and Thursday, but snow will continue to fall and accumulate in the mountains through the week and perhaps on into the new year...
Recent Avalanches
Avalanche activity spiked during last week's snow and wind. A large avalanche was reported near Logan Peak, occurring around 12/23. It likely failed on facets. See our updated list of observed avalanches from the Logan Zone HERE and from across Utah HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Persistent weak layers formed in November continue to plague many slopes, and last week's windy storm created a thick slab overlaying the weak layers, which created poor snow structure and an unstable snow situation in many areas.
There's a good chance a person can trigger a slab avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of facets 1-4 feet deep. Where the snow is deepest like at upper elevations, this layer may be starting to gain some strength, but in areas with shallower snow, like low elevations or places scoured by winds, this widespread layer of loose sugary snow remains weak.
Mark rode throughout Copenhagen Basin Friday and found an unstable layer of surface hoar on top of these facets (video below). He thought he would have easily triggered a slide if he had tried to ride on a steep slope. The party experienced plenty of collapsing.
***Since we don't trust slopes with this kind of buried persistent weak layer, we'll continue to avoid avalanche terrain where it exists by staying off and out from under slopes steeper than 30°.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Above freezing temperatures and a bit of rain already saturated the snow surface. Rain at lower elevations could create dangerous wet avalanche conditions and perhaps spawn natural wet avalanches in Logan Canyon and on steep slopes in the Cache Foothills and Bear Lake Area. Roof avalanches are also likely!
Avoid being on or under steep slopes with saturated snow This message needs to include people who might not normally expect to see avalanches. Natural wet avalanches at lower elevations could hit fishing holes on the Logan River or effect dog walking, bike riding, or runnnig trails.... Roller balls, pinwheels, and moist surface sluffs all indicate potential for wet avalanche activity.
Additional Information
Take the all-new online avalanche courses the UAC built for Know Before You Go or take other online courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).
Remember, when you leave the ski area boundary, Beaver Mt or Cherry Peak, you are entering the backcountry, and you could trigger dangerous avalanches....
  • Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and inspect your shovel and probe.
  • Practice Companion Rescue with your backcountry partners.
General Announcements
As the end of the year approaches, please consider a donation to the UAC to support avalanche forecasting.
Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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