Check out our Holiday Auction - Sign Up for the Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW)
Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills On-Snow Courses Resources and Tutorials
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Tuesday morning, December 20, 2022
Today you will find a MODERATE danger for triggering avalanches on a buried persistent weak layer on slopes that face W-N-SE The danger is greatest on steep northerly aspects near treeline and above where accumulated and drifted snow has built slabs 2'-4' thick over this weak layer. While there is a lower likelihood of triggering an avalanche right now, the consequences of being caught in a slide remain dangerous.
Most S and SW facing terrain offers generally LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The USFS is asking all backcountry users to avoid the upper Gold Basin Area during the week of December 19-23 while recovery operations are being conducted for the UDWR contract helicopter that crashed in the area last week.
Road Conditions: The road is snowpacked and slick. AWD and good tires are required.
Grooming: Trails were groomed Saturday but they have seen a lot of traffic over the weekend.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 79" Base Depth at Gold Basin 48"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak WNW 5-10 Temp 9F
Weather
Clouds are moving in this morning and it is currently 9 degrees. Look for mostly cloudy skies today and a high temperature of 18 degrees. The winds will shift to the SW and blow 10 - 15 mph. An arctic cold front moves in on Wednesday bringing snow to Northern Utah. This system will bring increased winds and colder temperatures to the La Sals. Below average temperatures will persist into the weekend. Long range models keep us under mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the year.
General Conditions
Conditions are great right now. Soft snow can be found on all but the most direct solar aspects. Cold temperatures and calm winds have been kind to the 24 inches of snow that fell last week. The avalanche danger is slowly dialing down, but a well defined persistent weak layer of faceted snow exists and the consequences of getting caught in a slide remain the same. Deep, dangerous, and potentially un-survivable human triggered avalanches remain possible, particularly on steep, northerly aspects near treeline and above. For more on this, check out Eric's excellent blog post about Moderate Danger With a Persistent Weak Layer.
If you're getting out in the backcountry please let us know what you are seeing by submitting an observation . Here are the most recent observations.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been observed. The most recent avalanches ran on or around Dec 13. Here is a complete list of avalanches in the La Sals.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of faceted snow that developed during the cold dry period in mid November exists on aspects that face W-N-SE. The greatest danger exists on slopes facing NW-N-E, where wind drifted snow has built thick slabs on top. These hard slabs are 1-4' thick and can produce very large, deep, and potentially deadly avalanches. Out of the wind zone an active weather pattern throughout December has stacked plenty of storm snow and built a cohesive and well connected slab on top of the weak, sugary, faceted snow. This weak layer has become less reactive in recent stability tests (for more details see my obs from yesterday). Obvious signs of instability are becoming harder to find each day. What hasn't changed is the poor snowpack structure. Likely places to trigger an avalanche right now include:
  • Slope margins where the slab is more thin and the weight of a rider is more likely to trigger the weak layer
  • Shallow, rocky areas with a thin snowpack
  • Steep convex rollovers
You can avoid this avalanche problem by keeping your slope angles below 30 degrees, ride slopes that are heavily anchored by dense trees, or ride South facing slopes that do not harbor this dangerous persistent weak layer.
Additional Information
As we head into a dry period it's good to know that at least for now, we are at 128% of normal snowpack for this time of year. The blue line is where we are currently, the purple line is the average, and the green line is where we were last year at this time.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >