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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 19, 2022
The avalanche danger has trended down to MODERATE but deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain possible. The danger is greatest on steep northerly aspects near treeline and above where accumulated and drifted snow has built slabs 2'-4' thick over this weak layer. Avoidance of slopes steeper than 30 degrees remains the best policy in these areas.
Moast S and SW facing terrain offers generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
The USFS is asking all backcountry users to avoid the upper Gold Basin Area during the week of December 19-23 while recovery operations are being conducted for the UDWR contract helicopter that crashed in the area last week.
Road Conditions: The road is snowpacked and slick. AWD and good tires are required.
Grooming: Trails were groomed Saturday but they have seen a lot of traffic over the weekend.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 79" Base Depth at Gold Basin 48"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak W 5-10 Temp 8F
Weather
It's a cold, quiet morning up there. Today, look for sunny skies, light northwesterly winds, and high temps near 20F. Tuesday will bring mostly cloudy skies clearing again on Wed. Wed night a weak system passes by to the north followed by another weak wave on Friday. Long range models keep us under mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the year.
General Conditions
It's been a great run and good snow can still be found on shady aspects. South facing slopes are feeling the effects of the sun over the past few days, see this report from Jason Ramsdell. The avalanche danger is slowly dialing down, but a well defined persistent weak layer of faceted snow exists and the consequences remain the same. Deep, dangerous, and potentially un-survivable human triggered avalanches remain possible, particularly on steep, northerly aspects near treeline and above. For more on this, see my blog post about Moderate Danger With a Persistent Weak Layer.
If you're getting out in the backcountry please let us know what you are seeing by submitting an observation . Here are the most recent observations.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been observed. The most recent avalanches ran on or around Dec 13. Here is a complete list of avalanches in the La Sals.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of faceted snow that developed during the cold dry period in mid November exists on aspects that face W-N-SE. Incremental loading from recent and wind drifrted snow has kept the pressure on this weak layer but the danger is slowly decreasing. The greatest danger exists on slopes facing NW-N-E, where wind drifted snow has built thick slabs on top. These hard slabs are 1-4' thick and can produce very large, deep, and potentially deadly avalanches. Slopes steeper than 30 degrees should be avoided in these areas.
I dug a snowpit and performed an extended column test on a NE aspect at 11,200' Saturday and achieved propagation on 18 taps. In the photo below you can see how a well defined slab failed on the persistent weak layer of facets in the middle of the snowpack.
This chart illustrates the layering in the above photo. We are looking for harder layers over weak layers. In the chart, the further a layer is drawn to the left, the harder it is. From the chart, you can see the weak layer where failure occurred between 40-45 cms.
Additional Information
As we head into a dry period it's good to know that at least for now, we are at 128% of normal snowpack for this time of year. The blue line is where we are currently, the purple line is the average, and the green line is where we were last year at this time.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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