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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, December 19, 2022
Elevated avalanche conditions and MODERATE danger exist in the backcountry on drifted upper elevation slopes and on slopes at all elevations with poor snow structure. Dangerous avalanches remain possible on many slopes steeper than 30°. Last week's snow and extensive drifting created thick slabs and overloaded slopes with buried persistent weak layers. People could trigger avalanches 1 to 4 feet deep in drifted terrain, especially in areas with shallow snow cover including northerly facing mid and lower elevation slopes. Dangerous avalanches might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or below!
The danger is LOW on southerly facing low and mid elevation slopes, and we've found areas with great powder riding in sheltered areas and in safe lower angled terrain.
Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
  • As the end of the year approaches, please consider a donation to the UAC to support avalanche forecasting.
  • We have discounted Beaver Mountain tickets for sale. HERE. Huge thanks to Beaver Mountain for supporting the work we do.
Weather and Snow
Very light powder stacked up last week and the snow is so nice that it's easy to forget that avalanche conditions are elevated on many slopes steeper than 30°. Last week, heavy snow and drifting overloaded many slopes plagued by buried weak layers and poor snow structure. Backcountry observations continue to include reports of audible collapsing or "whumpfs". These collapses could produce dangerous avalanches in steeper terrain.
This morning winds from the southwest are blowing 20 to 30 mph at the 8800' Red Spur weather station. I'm reading 14° F and there is 46 inches of total snow at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel.
Today expect increasing clouds, but continuing cold weather in the mountains. 8500' high temperatures will be around 21° F, and 15 mph west-southwest winds with gusts in the 30s will create wind chill values as low as -10° F.
Tomorrow will be cloudy, with continuing west-southwest winds blowing around 17 mph and some snow is likely, with 1 or 2 inches expected.
***Snowfall will be heavy at times Tuesday night and Wednesday, with 9 to 16 inches of accumulation possible at upper elevations.
Recent Avalanches
I could see lots of small and a few large natural avalanches in the Wellsville Range with clearing this weekend.
A pretty fresh natural avalanche was visible this weekend in Gibson Canyon in the southern bowl.
***See our updated list of observed avalanches from across Utah HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We've found buried layers of sugary snow at all elevations and on slopes facing every direction. In many areas the basal layers of the snowpack are becoming loose and sugary. It's getting pretty easy to get the sled stuck if you sink and spin your track into the bottomless sugary snow.
A buried persistent weak layer consisting of sugary faceted snow is widespread across the Logan Zone, and it's worse where the snow is shallower.
  • Red Flags indicating a persistent weak layer instability will include audible collapses or whumpfs and shooting cracks, but sometimes no red flags are apparent, and you have to dig down into the snow to find the sugary weak layer.
  • Slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer could be remotely triggered from a distance, and hopefully not from below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent and ongoing drifting overloaded slopes with buried persistent weak layers, built stiffer slabs, and elevated avalanche conditions. People could trigger dangerous avalanches of wind drifted snow in exposed upper and mid elevation terrain.
  • Slabs of drifted snow formed and are still building on the lee side of major ridges, under cornices, and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, saddles, cliff bands, and gully walls.
  • Our plan is to continue to stay off of and out from under all recently and previously drifted slopes in the backcountry steeper than about 30°.
A recent natural avalanche consisting of wind drifted snow on Big Baldy above Providence is visible in the afternoon from across Cache Valley.
Additional Information
Despite continued collapsing, recent natural avalanches, and poor snow test results, the danger of triggering an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer is gradually moderating. Check out Eric's recent blog about Moderate danger with a persistent weak layer problem HERE.
Take the all-new online avalanche courses the UAC built for Know Before You Go or take other online courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).
Remember, when you leave the ski area boundary, Beaver Mt or Cherry Peak, you are entering the backcountry, and you could trigger dangerous avalanches....
Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter.
  • Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware.
  • Inspect your shovel and probe.
  • Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and update the firmware if it is an electric version.
  • Practice Companion Rescue with your backcountry partners.
General Announcements
Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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