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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, December 16, 2022
Accumulating and wind drifted snow has kept the avalanche danger at CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes that face W-N-SE and dangerous, human triggered avalanches, failing on a buried persistent weak layer 2'-4' deep are likely. Slopes steeper than 30 degrees should be avoided in this terrain.
NW winds at upper elevations have blown just enough to drift the recent, low density snow, and a MODERATE danger for triggering a shallow wind slab exists on all aspects above treeline.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist throughout the state and three accidents involving injuries have occurred over the past week.
Loafer Canyon, Payson: DETAILS HERE
Pink Pine, SLC Mtns: DETAILS HERE
Neffs Canyon, SLC Mtns: DETAILS HERE
Road Conditions: A few inches of snow has fallen on the road since Grand County plowed on Tuesday. AWD and good tires required.
Grooming: A few inches of snow has fallen since Matt and Dave groomed on Tuesday. Traffic has packed things out into Gold Basin.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 5" 72 Hour Snow 24" Season Total Snow 79" Base Depth at Gold Basin 50"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak N 5-15 Temp -8F
Weather
The mountains picked up another 3"-5" of low density snow yesterday and temps are sub-zero up there this morning. Today will be sunny and cold with high temps in the single digits. Conditions look dry through next week.
General Conditions
Incremental loading continues to keep us in a dangerous state. We are now up to 24" of new snow at 1.8" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) since Monday. Outward signs of instability aren't widespread but when a collapse or whumph happens, you know it, and natural activity earlier in the week is enough reminder of the danger we face. A persistent weak layer of faceted snow exists on W-N-SE aspects and it is now buried by 2'-3 of snow. Slopes steeper than 30 degrees should be avoided on these aspects. It's still just a little bit thin out there but riding and turning conditions are excellent.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Click here for a list of recent observations. If you're getting out in the backcountry please let us know what you are seeing by submitting observations here.
Recent Avalanches
In our travels on Wednesday we observed a handfull of natural avalanches that ran at some point during the storm cycle. Not very wide, I would describe them as "pockety" which makes it difficult to predict exactly where they are going to occurr. All occurred on northerly aspects and appeared to be 2'-3' deep which is defintely enough to cause you some serious problems. They likely failed on the faceted weak layer.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of faceted snow that developed during the cold dry period in mid November is now present on aspects that face W-N-SE. Recent and wind drifted snow has incrementally loaded this weak layer and we are in a tentative state. Outward signs of instability may not be present, but audible collapses and shooting cracks are sure signs that the buried weak layer is failing under the weight of the new snow. This condition is most dangerous and wide spread on slopes facing NW-N-E, where wind drifted snow has built thick slabs on top. These hard slabs are 1-4' thick and can produce very large, deep, and potentially deadly avalanches. The only good strategy right now is to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees that face W-N-SE.
The buried weak layer sits right behind the glove in this photo. If you dig down, it is easy to locate because of the brown dust in the layer.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
NW winds at upper elevations over the past couple of days have blown just enough to drift the recent, low density snow and it is possible to trigger a shallow wind slab exists on all aspects above treeline. On northerly aspects, recent wind drfits will only add more stress to the buried persistent weak layer, and steep northerly facing terrain shold be avoided due to the possbility of a much deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Additional Information
The Neff's Canyon Accident up in SLC got Dave and I talking. It occurred on a lower elevation, northerly aspect with burned out trees. This is similar terrain to what exists in the burned out section of the North Woods. Slope angles hover in the low 30's but do reach 35 degrees in places. This is avalanche terrain, and it harbors weak, faceted snow. It should not be considered safe.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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