Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, January 29, 2022
The avalanche danger on the Manti Skyline remains generally LOW.
Sluffing of the surface snow should be anticipated on any steep slope that has soft snow on the surface. The sluffs are starting to get a bit larger and are entraining more snow as they descend.
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Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
TODAY!!
FREE AVALANCHE BEACON AND GEAR TRAINING
Saturday, January 29th: 9am to 12pm
North Skyline Drive parking lot at the top of Fairview Canyon.
Show up anytime between 9am and noon and we will teach you how to effectively use your avalanche beacon. We will also show you probing and digging techniques.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Wow. Same story, different day. Overnight temperatures were warmer up on the peaks than down in the valleys and canyons. Temps are around 30˚F on the peaks and teens in lower locations. The wind is almost calm even along the more exposed terrain. The snow surface is loose sugary "near surface facets" making for nice riding in many areas. You'll also find sun and wind crusts scattered about.
Mountain Weather
It's another sunny day with temperatures getting into the mid to upper 30s in the higher terrain and calm to light wind. Sunday and Monday look very similar. A storm that is shaping up for mid week looks less impressive for our region than it did on Friday morning when I looked at weather models. Originally I was hopeful for about 8 inches of new snow. Now it's looking like only a few inches. Maybe things will change over the next few days.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The only issue you need to keep in mind right now is sluffing of the surface snow on very steep slopes. I was able to trigger these easily on Friday and they are starting to gain size as they entrain snow on their way down the slope. This can pose some threat to skiers or snowboarders if you get out ahead of the sluff you triggered and it catches up to you and knocks you down. These sluffs aren't a concern at all for sleds.
The one thing that the sluffing demonstrates is that the surface continues to loosen. It continues to get more "sugary" every day that goes by with no new snow. This is the "Near Surface Faceting" process at work. The current snow surface is definitely in a state that needs to be watched closely once it gets buried as it could act as a weak layer and produce avalanche activity.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.