Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, March 24, 2021
The avalanche danger is generally LOW today.
There is a "pockety" MODERATE danger in the highest northerly facing very steep slopes where the snowpack remains shallow. Places where the snowpack is less than 3 or 4 feet deep would be likely spots to still trigger something.
Overall, the snow stability is increasing.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Last night's storm turned out to be a bust. A few days ago it looked like we were lined up for 6 to 10 inches of snow. The large storm trough split and basically went south. The southern end of the range picked up a dusting overnight. Overnight temperatures were in the mid teens. The wind has shifted to the northeast and is a bit gusty along the higher terrain.
Mountain Weather: We have a nice day in store today with lots of sun, high temperatures into the upper 20s or low 30s, and northeast wind shifting northwest and decreasing in speed. Another splitting storm system will move through on Thursday. Models indicate we should get a shot of snow. The best chance looks like Thursday afternoon in a southwest flow which should favor the north end of the range/Fariview Canyon zone. The flow gets light Thursday night and a bit mixed up although it looks like saturated unstable air is still in place during this period. Overall, I'm thinking 4 to 8 inches of snow is possible.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It would seem as if the warm spring weather has melted away our concerns with the weak faceted snow near the ground, so to speak. Stability has definitely increased lately and it seems fairly unlikely to trigger a slide that breaks to the ground. I suspect if you were really trying hard, you might be able to. Likely places would include all the following criteria:
  1. Slopes of 35 degrees or steeper.
  2. Slopes that faces NW, N, or NE.
  3. Slopes above about 10,000' in elevation.
  4. Slopes that have a shallow snowpack of 3 to 4 feet total depth.