Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, March 18, 2021
The avalanche danger is LOW to MODERATE today.
It is possible to trigger an avalanche that breaks into weak sugary faceted snow near the ground.
The chances for triggering one of these are pretty low but the consequences are high.
Slopes steeper than about 35˚ above 9500' that are on the north half of the compass are the most likely spots to trigger something.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Riding conditions were again quite good on Wednesday although most slopes experienced the newest snow becoming damp due to daytime heating. Southwest wind has been fairly light. Overnight, skies were clear with temperatures in the low to mid 20s. You'll find a melt/freeze crust in most places this morning.
Mountain Weather: We'll see partly cloudy skies the next couple of days with highs pushing into the upper 30s along the higher terrain today and into the low 40s on Friday. It looks like southerly wind might increase a bit today and a bit more Friday but it won't get real strong. Temperatures cool on Saturday ahead of the next storm. A quick glance at this storm hints at around 6 inches of snow by Sunday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A Persistent Weak Layer of faceted snow near the ground remains a concern. Chances are becoming less for triggering an avalanche that breaks into this weak snow. However, if you happen to be in the wrong spot, you could trigger something. While prowling around in Six Mile Canyon on Wednesday, my partner and I experienced a very large collapse where the entire snowpack dropped an inch or two underneath us. This was on a northwest facing slope at around 10,000' in elevation. The total depth was around 4' of snow. Had the slope been steeper, we would have triggered an avalanche.
The most likely places to trigger an avalanche are on steep slopes that are above about 9500' that face west, north or east and especially in places where the snowpack is shallow. Bottom Line: There are booby traps all over. This is a very unusual snowpack for this time of the season and I continue to treat it with the utmost caution.