Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, March 17, 2021
The majority of the terrain has a LOW to MODERATE avalanche danger today.
The danger is more pronounced on the very steep upper elevation north and northeast facing slopes. It is possible to trigger an avalanche that breaks to the ground in these areas still.
We are in a "low probability/high consequence" situation. The chances for triggering an avalanche that breaks to the ground are becoming less and less but if you do, it's going to be a nasty slide.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Spring Awareness Campaign - Help us save lives through avalanche forecasts and education. Consider making a donation to show your support. DETAILS HERE.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Storm totals are about 4 inches since Monday night. Overnight temperatures were in the upper teens to low 20s. Wind shifted around from the east to the northwest on Tuesday and has been light to moderate in speed. Riding conditions should be decent today before the sun heats the snow surface too much.
Mountain Weather: We have a warming trend over the next few days with various amounts of cloud cover. Today will be partly cloudy with highs around freezing. Thursday looks cloudier. Friday has fewer clouds with the warmest temperatures of the week. Another small storm will move through late Saturday. It doesn't look too exciting at the moment.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Below is some information that describes the current situation with the weak layers of snow at the base of the snowpack that formed in Nov, Dec, and Jan.
Weak faceted loose sugary snow remains at the base of the snowpack. This remains a threat on steep upper elevation shady slopes. We just have not seen quite enough snow during the second half of the winter to compress and force the loose snow grains to bond. You can see the progression below from my snow study plot in Spring City Canyon. Everything below the dark black line is faceted snow. Over time, it has compressed and increased in strength a bit except right at the base.
Snow stability tests remain poor at this location. This location should be fairly representative of many other higher elevation shady locations around the range.