Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, March 14, 2021
The majority of the terrain has a LOW to MODERATE avalanche danger today.
However, there is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger in the steep upper elevation NW, N and NE facing terrain where a person could trigger an avalanche that breaks to the ground.
Increased northwest wind speed is drifting snow and increasing the likelihood of triggering a deep avalanche in the higher terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The final wave of snow from the large storm system that's brought snow since Tuesday is moving through. 24 hour snow totals are about 5 inches. This brings totals since Tuesday up to 15 to 17 inches of snow containing about 1 1/4" of water. Riding conditions are good to excellent. You can feel last week's firm melt freeze crust under the new powder in places especially lower elevations that didn't pick up as much new snow. Temperatures are around 20˚F. Northwest wind has increased in speed over the higher ridges.
Mountain Weather: We'll see lingering snowfall this morning with not too much more accumulation expected. It looks like clouds will hang around all day. Northwest wind will remain a bit breezy along the higher ridges this morning then taper off later on. Temperatures will get into the mid to upper 20s. Another storm is going to move through Monday night with another shot of snow possible. I haven't dug into details yet.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The weak sugary snow at the base of the snowpack remains in place. Stronger layers of snow are bridging over the weak snow at the base. If you are getting onto steep slopes today, you are banking on that bridge to not break. The facets are still below it. We are in a low probability/high consequence situation. You can stumble around out there blindly and perhaps not trigger an avalanche. However, you may just find the spot where the bridge breaks. It's the "Dirty Harry Principal" where you gotta ask yourself, "do you feel lucky?"