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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, March 1, 2021
There is CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on recently drifted slopes in the backcountry. People could trigger large avalanches failing 3 to 4 feet deep on a buried persistent weak layer near the ground if they venture into steep terrain, especially on upper and mid elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast. Large and dangerous avalanches still might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or below. Rapid warming will cause dangerous loose wet avalanche conditions on sunny slopes with recent deposits of fresh snow.
  • Expect unstable snow conditions, even if obvious signs of instability are absent.
  • Choose safe routes in low angled terrain well out from under and not connected to drifted slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
At upper elevations about 2 feet of new snow fell over the weekend, with 2.3" Snow Water Equivalent at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel. It's 10°F, and there is 84 inches of total snow and 84% of normal SWE. Winds from the north-northwest are blowing 15 mph at the CSI Logan Peak weather station. There was a good deal of drifting of the new snow from mostly westerly winds during the storm. We're expecting sunny and warming conditions in the mountains, and continuing fair weather with gradual warming through the upcoming week. Temperatures at 8500' will top out at around 30°F today, and fairly light northwest winds will switch from the southeast this morning.
Recent Avalanches
A rider remotely triggered an avalanche on a drifted slope somewhere in the Elk Valley Area yesterday (2-28-2021), but details are a bit limited. Twitter report is HERE.
A few recent natural avalanches were reported, but visibility of the high country was pretty limited.
View of White Pine Knob from the north.....
Last Saturday, 2-20-2021, a 48-year-old Preston man was killed in an avalanche on the east side of Sherman Peak west of Georgetown Idaho. Our accident report is HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Most natural avalanches in the Logan Zone occur during significant winter storms, but most accidents seem to happen when the weather clears, right after the storms. Heavy snowfall and westerly winds during the storm added weight to, and probably overloaded slopes with poor snow structure that were already near the tipping point. Buried persistent weak layers consisting of sugary faceted snow are widespread across the Logan Zone, and the threat of large and deadly avalanches failing on weak snow near the ground remains quite real.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Aalanches of wind drifted snow are possible at all elevations and on slopes facing every direction, but they are most likely on upper and mid elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast. Avalanches of wind drifted snow are likely where fresh drifts formed on steep slopes, especially on slopes with buried persistent weak layers. Cornices are large and were reported to be quite sensitive as they continued to grow over thje weekend.
  • Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge tops and in and around terrain features like gullies, scoops, cliff bands, and sub ridges.
  • Wind slabs are often rounded and chalky looking, and they can sound and feel hollow and drum-like when you walk on them.
  • Stay well back from cornices as they can break much further back than you expect, and avalanches are possible on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong March sun will rapidly warm up the fresh snow and cause it to become moist, sticky, and prone to avalanching. Loose wet avalanches entraining large piles of fresh snow are likely in steep sunny terrain today.
  • Even a small avalanche could be enough to cause problems, especially on steep slopes with trees or other terrain traps below.
  • Smaller wet avalanches overrunning a slope with buried persistent weak layers could step down into older snow near the ground and cause a much larger and more destructive avalanche.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please keep practicing with the Beacon Training Park at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. Test yourself and your riding partners. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
General Announcements
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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