Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Tuesday morning, February 23, 2021

Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist on many slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Considerable means that dangerous human-triggered avalanches are likely. The danger is most prevalent on the west to north to southeast facing slopes where weak faceted snow exists and on any recently wind drifted terrain. Cornices are to be avoided.

If the winds die down, wet avalanches could be possible on the steeper sunlit slopes with clearing skies today - pay attention to changing conditions.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

This morning, skies are overcast and mountain temperatures range from the mid-20s to the low 30s F. The northwesterly winds have increased overnight currently averaging 15-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph at the mid-elevations and gusts near 50 mph at upper-elevations.

Today, low clouds will sit over the mountains with a small chance of light snow before clearing this afternoon. Temperatures will rise and skies will become mostly sunny this afternoon. Temperatures will settle into the mid-30s F The northwesterly winds will continue averaging 20-30, with gusts up to 35 mph at mid-elevations and up to 70 mph at upper elevations.

Yesterday, the snow surface became damp in the afternoon at lower elevations and southerly aspects. Expect to find a firm crust this morning. The best riding conditions will be found in sun sheltered and low-angle terrain.

It finally feels like we have a real winter under our feet. Coverage is pushing 50-60" in the Provo area.

Recent Avalanches

Dangerous avalanche conditions consume the West: The backcountry community has suffered 24 avalanche fatalities in 24 days, the most recent from Idaho, Nevada, and yesterday - Wyoming. INFO. Utah is up to 6 avalanche fatalities for the season.

No new avalanches reported in the backcountry but avalanche control teams are still getting large explosive triggered results - including a large D3 avalanche that ran 3000' on a SE aspect.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Drew said it well, “the difference between joy and terror is sometimes just a matter of a few degrees of separation – as in about 10 degrees of separation”. As we get farther from last week’s extreme danger ratings it will become increasingly tempting to step into steeper terrain, but with a persistent weak layer our options are simple:

Low-Risk – High Reward

High-Risk – High Reward

We must continue sticking to low-risk terrain. With the tricky snowpack structure that we currently have, we may not be presented with obvious signs of instability such as cracking or collapsing. As well, tracks on a slope offer zero indication of stability – it could be the third, fifth, or first skier on the slope that triggers this weak layer.

Patience is required, there is no outsmarting this problem. You are still likely to trigger a deadly avalanche 2-5’ deep in an area where the slab is thinner, such as rocky terrain, or in areas that have previously avalanched this winter. While it may be possible to find this layering anywhere in the Wasatch, I am most suspect of terrain along the periphery of the Cottonwoods such as Mill Creek, the PC ridgeline, Lambs/Mt Aire, Snake Creek, and the transitional zone toward the Bountiful/Sessions.

What to do:

Dig down and if you see weak facets in the snowpack, avoid steep terrain
Choose a completely safe uptrack. You are often more vulnerable while ascending.
Expose only one person at a time and keep tabs on people all the time
Know what's above and connected to you - these avalanches can be triggered from a distance or below.
Ski cuts and cornice drops can be dangerous and dangerously misleading indicators of stability

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The winds are cranking this morning, near 80 mph. High winds can deposit the lingering snow around terrain features on almost any aspect, called cross-loading. For this reason, I would expect to find stubborn slabs of wind drifted snow at all upper and leeward mid-elevation slopes, especially along with terrain features such as ridgelines, sub ridges, and gullies.

As the winds continue to blow, these slabs of wind drifted snow will become more stubborn and cohesive. This can allow you to travel out farther onto the slope before it breaks, and can fail larger and wider than expected. Approach each new drift with caution, cracking and collapsing may not be evident today. The elevated winds continue to increase the size of cornices on many ridgelines, making them more sensitive. Stay well back from - and avoid travel below - corniced ridges.

A triggered wind slab or cornice may or may not step down into deeper weak layers.

Look for any slopes with signs of wind drifted snow, and avoid those slopes.

Additional Information

If the winds do die down - the snow surface may get wet and we could see small, loose wet avalanches. A few could be bigger if they entrain more snow as they roll downhill.

Look for rollerballs and pinwheels rolling downhill and getting bigger as a sign that wet loose avalanches could start occurring.

These are two examples of avalanches from the recent avalanche cycle: the first is off Tuscarora in the Brighton periphery. The second is near West Scotties in the lower White Pine drainage of LCC. The first is upper elevation, east facing and open terrain. The second is mid-elevation, west facing, and more interspersed with trees. Quite different from one another, but they are both avalanche terrain. Both could kill you. Slope angle is the great equalizer right now.

pc: Bill Nalli

pc: Mitch Potter

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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