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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, February 12, 2021
The avalanche danger is MODERATE though you can still trigger deep and dangerous avalanches on steep slopes facing NW-N-SE. Above treeline, wind-loading over the past week has added additional stress to buried, persistent weak layers. As a result, the danger increases with elevation, as does the likelihood of triggering an avalanche. Less likely, but not impossible, are avalanches failing on drifted slopes with a more southerly aspect. Please consider what a MODERATE risk for dying really means. This is far from a green light, and unless you like playing Russian Roulette, continue to avoid steep, northerly facing terrain. Look for a rising danger over the weekend.
Low
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The accident report for the tragic avalanche that killed four skiers in Millcreek Canyon on Saturday, Feb 6, is complete. All were well-known members of the backcountry community and all of us at the UAC are deeply affected. Our deep and sincere condolences go out to the family and friends so affected by this accident.
Weather and Snow
Light snow has begun to fall in the Abajo Mountains and SW winds have been on the increase overnight. This fast-moving system looks to bring only about 2"-4" with most of the snow falling before afternoon. Winds should decrease and shift to the W and then NW by afternoon. High temps will be in the upper 30's. The next stronger system moves in on Saturday afternoon. Much of the energy looks to dive south, but optimistically we could see a foot of snow by Sunday. Yet another system is lined up for Mon-Tue.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
New snow today should not cause much of an increase in the avalanche danger but we will have to be alert to changing conditions and the likelihood of increasing danger over the weekend. Current snow conditions are variable and depths range from 2'-4' deep on northerly aspects while coverage on south-facing terrain remains quite thin with some slopes continuing to show bare ground. The sparse coverage makes conditions deceiving, but dangerous human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, northerly facing slopes. In these areas, the underlying snow is very weak and sugary and is providing an unstable base for slabs that have formed on top.
Chris Benson was up Thursday and sent in this observation.
He also shot this drone footage that details snow cover and an old avalanche.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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