Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, February 4, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing NW-N-E at mid and upper elevations and deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas. The sparse coverage makes conditions deceiving, but in these areas, the underlying snow is very weak and sugary and is providing an unstable base for slabs that have formed on top. Cautious route-finding in these areas is essential. Most other terrain has a MODERATE danger trending towards LOW on more southerly aspects.
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Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
The Colorado Avalanche Information Center reports that three skiers are still missing after a large avalanche in the San Juan Mountains. You can read the preliminary report HERE. Additionally, the final report from a fatal accident on Saturday near the Park City Ridgeline can be read HERE. Our thoughts go out to those affected by this tragic accident, especially the family and friends of the victims.
Weather and Snow
Buckboard Snotel is reporting 3" of new snow this morning with no new snow falling at Camp Jackson on the south side of the range. Skies are clear and NW winds are blowing in the 10-20 mph range at upper elevations. Look for sunny skies today with high temps in the upper teens. Northwest flow aloft prevails across the Intermountain region bringing chances of snow to the north while southern Utah looks to remain dry through the weekend.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
Last week's storm cycle nearly doubled our snowpack and depths range from 2'-4' deep on northerly aspects. Coverage on south-facing terrain remains quite thin with some slopes continuing to show bare ground. The sparse coverage makes conditions deceiving, but dangerous human triggered avalanches remain likely in steep, northerly facing slopes. In these areas, the underlying snow, however, is very weak and sugary and is providing an unstable base for slabs that have formed on top. Kevin Dressel was up yesterday and reported unstable conditons with reactive stability tests. See his report here.
Recent Avalanches
Large, destructive and deadly avalanches continue to be reported from adjacent zones. On Monday, a large avalanche on a NE aspect at 11,500' caught and carried four skiers, three of which are still missing. Yesterday, a near miss occured on the Skyline at 10,000' on a north-aspect. Both of these events highlight that persistant slab avalanches are sensitive to triggering, and may break wider and farther than you might expect.
On Friday (1/29/2021), several slab avalanches were observed that failed on weak, sugary snow near the ground on steep, NE aspects. One near North Creek Pass is reported to be snowmobile triggered. Recent avalanches are clear signs of instability.
Mathew Cozart reported observing several avalanches on Sunday (1/31/21). Read his report here.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.