Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, March 18, 2020
The avalanche danger remains MODERATE on steep, wind drifted slopes right around treeline and above that face NW-N-E and human triggered avalanches up to a foot deep are possible. As new snow begins to accumulate later today, be on the lookout for shallow, fresh drifts to form in these same areas. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We know there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the Coronavirus, but the Utah Avalanche Center is planning to continue issuing regular avalanche forecasts into April.
Road Conditions: Some snow and ruts exist on the upper portion of the road. Dirt and mud below.
Grooming: Trails were last groomed on Saturday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 7" Base Depth in Gold Basin 56" Wind SE 30-35 G50 Temp 25F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Weather: Clouds are moving in and southerly winds are cranking as a low-pressure storm system moves into the region. There are some model discrepancies with this one and snow totals are uncertain but we should see showers develop this afternoon with 1"-3" possible. Southerly winds will continue to blow in the 20-30 mph range with gusts in the 40's. High temps will be in the low 30's. Snow should pick up tonight and linger through tomorrow. It looks like about 4"-8" when it's all said and down.
Snowpack: It's a mixed bag out there both above and below. The snow surface has a variety of conditions ranging from wind-scoured to sun crusted. Some soft snow remains in sheltered areas. Areas of wind drifted snow exist above treeline, primarily on northerly aspects and in some cases, these drifts are overlying weak, sugary, faceted snow. In shady, shallow snowpack areas, the underlying snowpack is comprised almost entirely of loose, facets.
Recent Avalanches
A party of tourers triggered a significant avalanche Saturday on a steep, NE aspect around 11,000' in upper Gold Basin. Though wind drifted snow was the primary problem, it did propagate into a layer of weak, faceted snow. Human triggered avalanches such as this remain possible today. Here is a report from Dave Garcia who spoke with the party involved.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong southerly winds have blown and drifted snow forming wind slabs on northerly aspects right around treeline and above. As new snow begins to accumulate be on the lookout for fresh drifts to form on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Avoid steep slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. In some areas, a triggered wind slab could step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent and wind drifted snow has provided enough of a load to affect the layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that comprises much of the snowpack. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving these persistent weak layers on steep, wind loaded, northerly facing slopes right around treeline. Shallow snowpack areas around rocks or along slope margins are likely trigger points.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.