Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, February 19, 2020
The avalanche danger is generally LOW and mostly stable snow conditions exist. That said, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche in isolated areas with very steep, rocky, extreme terrain, primarily on slopes with a NW-E-SE aspect. Even a small avalanche triggered in the wrong terrain can have devastating consequences. Practice safe travel techniques and keep an eye toward subtle terrain features that may harbor lingering instabilities.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
A huge shout out to all who attended our Backcountry 101 course last weekend. It's great to see people engaged and working to further their education. And thanks again to Moab Gear Trader for their generous sponsorship of this course!
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but snow-packed and icy in places.
Grooming report: LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) groomed the lower meadow and into Gold Basin on Wednesday.
Weather and Snow
With generally low danger, and nothing in the current weather pattern likely to change that, I won't be reporting on current conditions for a few days. For real-time weather data and the National Weather Service forecast, please see the following links:
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Snowpack: The past several weeks have not been great for our snowpack. On the surface, SW-NW winds have strafed and scoured the snow right down to the rocks at upper elevations. Where snow still exists in these areas it looks like a textured desert landscape. Ribbons of windboard and crust exist on exposed northerly aspects with only the most sheltered locations offering soft snow. Weak, faceted snow is developing on the surface in sheltered areas, while underneath, faceted snow has developed in areas where the snowpack is less than about 4' deep. For more information on the snowpack, see this excellent observation from Chris Benson.
This video was posted on Saturday, Feb 15, and documents conditions from last week. Little has changed.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Though the danger is generally LOW, there are still areas out there where you could trigger an avalanche. You are most likely to find trouble in upper elevation, extreme terrain on slopes facing NW-N-SE. The distinction in arriving at LOW danger is in the size (small), likelihood (not very), and distribution (isolated), of any particular avalanche problem. Minimize your exposure by practicing safe travel techniques with an eye toward the following avalanche problems:
Wind Drifted Snow: With a wide variety of terrain features and heavy exposure to wind, there are almost always isolated wind slabs lurking about somewhere, especially at upper elevations. In isolated areas, you may encounter wind drifted snow overlying a layer of weak faceted snow. Be on the lookout for old wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, and suspect areas that have a smooth, rounded appearance or that sound and feel hollow like a drum.
Today's increase in winds would normally sound the alarm but with so little snow available for transport on the scoured and crusted southerly aspects, I don't anticipate much of a rising threat from fresh deposits of wind drifted snow. It's possible I'm underestimating this threat, so always be on the lookout for blowing and drifting snow and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.
Persistent Weak Layer: Shallow snowpack areas are developing weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. You are most likely to find these weak layers on rocky, or sparsely wooded northerly facing slopes where the snowpack is less than about 4' deep. Faceted snow is also developing near the surface, or underneath a variety of crusts that exist out there. Though not posing much of a threat at this time, this will become a concern with future snow loads.
General Announcements
My radio interview on KZMU about the history of backcountry skiing in the La Sals, avalanche accidents, and unique snowpack has been saved in perpetuity. You can listen to it here.
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.