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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, February 1, 2020
Most terrain offers generally LOW danger. Isolated areas exist where you may be able to trigger an avalanche - primarily on steep, wind loaded slopes at upper elevations that face NW-E-SE. In these areas, the avalanche danger remains MODERATE. Other outlying areas of concern include steep, rocky, radical terrain that has an underlying weak snowpack. With warm temperatures on tap, be alert for loose wet activity on sun-exposed slopes later in the day.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Are you looking to improve your avalanche skills? We are offering a Backcountry 101: Introduction to Avalanches class on February 15-16 in Moab. Click here to register A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs.
New UAC Podcast: The Art of Storytelling Through Film - A Conversation with Trent Meisenheimer check it out HERE.
Road Conditions: Grand County plowed on Tuesday. The road is clear but snowpacked.
Grooming report: LUNA's (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) dedicated groomer Matt Hebberd groomed the entire mountain and packed in the lower meadow yesterday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 50" Wind NW 15-20 mph Temp 21F
Weather: A very warm and beautiful day is on tap. We'll see sunny skies, light northwesterly winds shifting to southwesterly, and high temps soaring to near 40 degrees. Dry and warm conditions will continue tomorrow but we'll see increasing southwest winds ahead of the next storm system. Hold on to your hats - by tomorrow afternoon winds could gust as high as 45 mph, and by tomorrow night gusts could reach 70 mph! Snow should begin on Monday and continue into Tuesday.
Snow conditions: A mixed bag of snow conditions can be found out there right now. I was down in the Abajos yesterday and was pleasantly surprised to find good, settled powder on an open, NE facing slope. Other areas displayed a variety of wind and sun affected surfaces. Reed Kennard and Brian Murray were up in the La Sals yesterday and reported similar conditions. The moral of the story is be choosy, poke around and you can still find good snow. Underneath, the snowpack is also variable. In many areas above about 10,500', the pack is deep and strong. Wind exposed slopes, and rocky areas right around treeline and below have shallower and weaker snow.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Isolated wind slabs are still scattered about the high country. Triggering one is becoming much less likely but remain on the lookout for smooth rounded pillows that feel or sound hollow like a drum. You are most likely to encounter a wind slab on the lee side of a terrain feature on an upper elevation slope that faces NE-E-SE but cross-loading has affected slopes further around the compass. Carefully evaluate steep terrain for signs of wind loading.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Spatial variability in the snowpack is the key phrase right now. Many areas have a deep and strong, underlying snowpack, while wind exposed terrain, and rocky slopes right around treeline and below have a shallower and weaker snowpack. A weak layer exists on SE-S facing slopes, and when wind-loaded, this layer may still be reactive to the weight of a skier or rider. I'm hoping the warm temps today and tomorrow will put an end to this concern, but for now I would still consider these slopes suspect.
General Announcements
My radio interview on KZMU about the history of backcountry skiing in the La Sals, avalanche accidents, and unique snowpack has been saved in perpetuity. You can listen to it here.
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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