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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 15, 2020
Strong southerly winds over the past two days have resulted in fairly widespread drifting and slabbing of the most recent snow and the avalanche danger is MODERATE at mid and upper elevations, on steep slopes facing W-N-SE that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Recent wind drifts will be recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance, and sometimes hollow feel. Cracking is a sign of instability. Ranging from 3"-12" deep, wind slabs will be less sensitive today, but steep slopes with recently deposited, wind drifted snow should be avoided.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Our Backcountry 101 avalanche course has been scheduled for February 15, 16. The cost is $150. The course starts with a 4-hour classroom session the night of the 15th followed by a day in the field. It's a great way to increase your avalanche awareness and backcountry travel skills. Click here to register. A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but snowpacked. Be aware of blown and drifted snow.
Grooming update: Trails have not been groomed since Saturday and blowing and drifting snow has compromised the track.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 40" Wind SW 15 G28 Temp 17F
Skies are clear this morning, winds are starting to back off, and it looks like it will be a beautiful day in the mountains. You will have to stick to sheltered terrain to find good snow however. SE-SW winds have been cranking over the past few days averaging 20-30 mph with gusts to 40. Yesterday, my partners and I ventured up into the alpine terrain in Gold Basin and found that blowing, drifting, and scouring of the snow surface has been widespread with alternating deep drifts, shallow slabs, wind crusts and sculpted surfaces covering the landscape.
Looking ahead, the next storm is on track to move through the area on Friday. It doesn't look like a big snow producer, and though it is on a favorable SW flow, the main energy looks like it will pass by to the east. High pressure builds through the weekend with a possible return to an active pattern by mid next week.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Recent Avalanches
Dave Garcia observed this avalanche on Monday off the shoulder of the NE face of Tukno. If you read that day's forecast, I noted the potential for this particular path, a classic runner with only a few inches of snow and strong SW winds. Though not a large avalanche, it's remarkable how much snow was entrained, and how far it ran.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds continued to blow and drift snow yesterday and we continued to find recently formed wind slabs ranging from only a few inches up to 16" deep. They were generally more stubborn to release, and cracking was not widespread, but we did encounter a skier triggered wind slab avalanche at the base of a steep, NW facing moraine just below treeline. The slabby conditions are difficult to ski, and their stubborn nature may lure you further on to them before they release. For safety and snow quality, stick to sheltered, non-wind loaded terrain.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
A big thanks to Classic Air Medical, Grand County, and the Winter Rescue Team for turning out for a successful training on Saturday! The team is ready if you need them. Please don't need them!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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