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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 14, 2020
Strong winds yesterday resulted in widespread drifting and slabbing of the most recent snow and the avalanche danger is MODERATE on all aspects at mid and upper elevations, on steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Recent wind drifts will be recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. Ranging from 3"-12" deep, wind slabs should be less sensitive today, but steep slopes with more than about 6" of recently deposited, wind drifted snow should be carefully evaluated.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Our Backcountry 101 avalanche course has been scheduled for February 15, 16. The cost is $150. The course starts with a 4-hour classroom session the night of the 15th followed by a day in the field. It's a great way to increase your avalanche awareness and backcountry travel skills. Click here to register. A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but snowpacked.
Grooming update: Matt groomed Gold Basin through Geyser Pass Saturday. 2"-3" of new snow has fallen since.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 40" Wind SE 25 G45 Temp 19F
As pro observer Dave Garcia put it in this excellent observation "the winds are at it again." They blew most of the day yesterday from the WSW in the 20-30 mph range with gusts to 40 before making a shift to the SE around 2:00 a.m. They've been steadily cranking from there and will continue to do so throughout the day with a swing back to the SW. On the bright side, today will be sunny with high temps in the upper 20's, and the 5" of accumulated snow since Thursday have freshened up conditions considerably. Dave reported fun skiing in sheltered areas with blown-in snow.
Looking ahead, things will be dry for the next few days with our next chance for snow coming late Thursday and into Friday. This storm looks slightly better for us, but it's still not a sure thing. Things look dry again after that.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
Recent Avalanches
Dave Garcia observed this avalanche yesterday off the shoulder of the NE face of Tukno. If you read yesterday's forecast, I noted the potential for this particular path, a classic runner with only a few inches of snow and strong SW winds. Though not a large avalanche, it's remarkable how much snow was entrained, and how far it ran.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow yesterday was found to be more widespread than I anticipated and Dave observed sensitive, fresh deposits on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. Ranging in depth from 3"-12", wind slabs should be less sensitive today, but steep slopes with more than about 6" of freshly deposited snow should be carefully evaluated. Interspersed between areas of wind-scoured surfaces, recent drifts will be easily recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Dave Garcia was able to crack out this wind slab on a SW aspect below treeline where swirling winds from a predominately SW direction still managed to deposit drifts of unstable snow.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
A big thanks to Classic Air Medical, Grand County, and the Winter Rescue Team for turning out for a successful training on Saturday! The team is ready if you need them. Please don't need them!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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