Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 12, 2020
Most terrain offers LOW danger and avalanche conditions are mostly stable. An isolated or MODERATE danger exists on steep, upper elevation slopes that face N-NE-E where it may still be possible to trigger an old, hard wind slab. Suspect areas that have a smooth, rounded look or hollow feel to them. High winds have caused slabs to form down-slope from ridge crests, and special attention should be paid to slopes that have steep convexities or blind break overs.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Our Backcountry 101 avalanche course has been scheduled for February 15, 16. The cost is $150. The course starts with a 4-hour classroom session the night of the 15th followed by a day in the field. It's a great way to increase your avalanche awareness and backcountry travel skills. Click here to register. A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs
A new podcst from Drew Hardesty is up - An Avalanche Forecaster, a Meteorologist, and an Economist Walk Into a Bar... check it out here.
Road Conditions: Expect to find a dusting of new snow on top of a plowed but snowpacked surface.
Grooming update: Matt groomed Gold Basin through Geyser Pass yesterday. A trace to an inch of new snow has fallen since.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 2" Weekly Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 39" Wind NW 10 mph Temp 5F
Orographic showers from a passing wave produced a trace to 2" of new snow since yesterday afternoon. High clouds are streaming over the area this morning. they should thicken and lower throughout the day as the next in a series of waves moves through the region. Snow showers should develop this afternoon/evening with 2"-4" possible by tomorrow. SW winds will be on the increase today blowing in the 15-20 mph range with gusts to 30 along ridge tops by this afternoon. By tonight and into tomorrow they should really start cranking with gusts as high as 50 mph. Uggh.
I must say conditions leave something to be desired out there right now with a variety of crusts and wind-blasted surfaces. Creamy settled powder can still be found in the most sheltered recess but popular areas are getting pretty tracked out. Let's hope we get a little refresh from the next passing wave.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Old, hard wind slabs that developed over the course of the past week are becoming harder to trigger but they may still be possible. The greatest danger seemed to be further down-slope where strong, southerly winds have deposited deep drifts on to N-NE-E aspects. Suspect hard surfaces that have a hollow feel underneath, and avoid steep, convex slopes that lure you down beyond the point of no return.
General Announcements
A big thanks to Classic Air Medical, Grand County, and the Winter Rescue Team for turning out for a successful training on Saturday! The team is ready if you need them. Please don't need them!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.