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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, January 10, 2020
Though the odds of triggering an avalanche are decreasing, the danger remains MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are possible on steep slopes right around treeline and above that face N-NE-E. Old, hard wind slabs are most likely to be found downslope from ridge crests, and special attention should be paid to those slopes that have steep convexities or blind break overs. In some areas, a triggered wind slab may step down into a buried weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
Low
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High
Extreme
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Road Conditions: The road is plowed but snow-packed with occasional ice. All-wheel drive with good tires recommended.
Grooming update: Travis groomed Gold Basin through Geyser Pass yesterday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 38" Wind NW 10 mph Temp 9F
The bad news is that we didn't get any snow from yesterday's system. The good news is that the low-level Stratus deck has cleared out and valley dwellers can once again see the sun! And, after a relentless, blustery week, winds have also taken a break. Count our blessings. Today look for mostly sunny skies with high temps in the mid-teens. Winds will again be on the increase by this afternoon blowing from hte NE at 15-20 mph along ridge tops with gusts as high as 30. An active pattern begins late Saturday and extending through mid-week. As discussed before, this pattern will mainly favor points north, but by Tues-Wed, things may slide south a bit.
It was a cold, clammy, and windy, day in the mountains yesterday, and in my travels, I found a variety of wind-blasted snow surfaces. Everything from wind crust, to hard wind board, and sculpted sastrugi can be found out there right now. You'll have to get creative to find soft snow in sheltered areas. Nate Ament and company did just that and sent in this observation.
Cross country or skate skiing on fresh corduroy may be the best game in town right now! Matt Hebberd photo.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Old, hard wind slabs that developed over the course of the past week are becoming harder to trigger but they may still be possible. In my travels yesterday, I found isolated wind slabs along ridge crests that were stubborn to crack and not well connected. Much of the terrain along ridge crests is scoured from shifting wind directions. The greatest danger seemed to be further down slope where strong, southerly winds have deposited deep drifts on to N-NE-E aspects. Steep, convex slopes that lure you down on to the slab are particularly insidious and I would continue to avoid this type of terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak interfaces continue to be observed in the snowpack but I've not found them to be reactive for some time. Additionally, wind loading over the past week failed to produce any natural avalanches on a buried weak layer. Nevertheless, they do exist and it may still be possible for a triggered wind slab to step down into a buried weak layer.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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