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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, December 14, 2019
Look for a rise in avalanche danger over the next 24 hours. Blowing and drifting snow has caused the avalanche danger to rise to MODERATE on steep upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E. Look for fresh drifts on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub-ridges or gully walls. New snow amounts and wind will dictate the corresponding rise in danger and backcountry travelers need to be alert to changing conditions. Be alert to signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface and avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Check out the new weather page created for us by Manti-Skyline forecaster and general do it all guy Brett "Kowboy" Kobernik. Thanks Kow!
The avalanche beacon tester is up and running at the Geyser Pass trailhead! Walk or ride past the sign on your way up - a red X means your beacon is off or not functioning, a green O means you're good to go! Thanks to UAC volunteer and supporter Kristi Jensen from Coyote Shuttle for helping me get it set up!
Road Conditions: The road is snow-packed and slick but passable to all-wheel drive vehicles with good tires.
Grooming update: Matt rolled and packed into Gold Basin last Sunday. Conditions are good for classic cross country but a bit rugged for skate skiing. I'll be picking up the other machine next week and we'll be able to start running the Ginzu groomer.
Weather and Snow
Trace amounts of snow have fallen overnight. WSW winds overnight blew 20-30 mph with gusts into the 40's before backing off and swinging around to the WNW early this morning. They are currently light and westerly. 10,000' temps are in the mid 20's.
A band of mid-level clouds is currently spreading over the area as the next wave of energy spills down from the north. Today look for increasing clouds and westerly winds with snowfall beginning later today - likely this afternoon or evening. Temps are about as high as they are going to get. NWS is forecasting some optimistic snow totals of around 6"-10" by tomorrow. This system has never been on track to favor us and those totals seem more likely for the San Juan Mountains. The NAEFS ensemble is favoring 10" or more, while the SREF is more in line with what I'm seeing at under 5". Let's hope I'm wrong!
I was down in the Abajos yesterday but Dave Garcia was up in the La Sals keeping tabs on things. Here is his observation. Coverage ranges from 2'-4' deep above 10,000' and the base is mostly supportable. Snow conditions remain decent in sheltered areas while sun and wind crusts have formed on exposed slopes.
Overall coverage is good for this time of year, even on south-facing slopes. Dave Garcia photo.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dave Garcia was up yesterday and observed shallow, recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Expect drifts to become deeper and more widespread over the next 24 hours. New snow amounts and wind will dictate the rise in danger. Look for fresh drifts to form on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features including sub-ridges and gully walls primarily in upper elevation wind exposed terrain that faces NW-N-SE. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking in the snow is a sign of instability.
General Announcements
The first UAC podcast of the season " Early Season Essentials with Program Director Bo Torrey" check it out HERE.
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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