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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, December 5, 2019
I don't expect the recent new snow to have much of an effect on the avalanche danger. Today there remains an isolated or MODERATE danger for human triggered avalanches on a buried persistent weak layer on steep slopes facing NW-N-E. There also remains an isolated possibility of triggering an old, hard wind slab on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing terrain. Most other terrain offers LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
The First Annual Avalanche Awareness Week is December 2-7 We have a week full of fun and educational events planned. Check out the schedule here.
The annual free Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk will be held at the Grand County Library on Thursday, Dec 5 at 6:00 p.m. Hope to see you there!
The first UAC podcast of the season " Early Season Essentials with Program Director Bo Torrey" check it out HERE.
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Weather and Snow
Though not forecasted to be a big event, the current storm has proven to be quite underwhelming. Gold Basin is reporting 2" of new snow overnight. We may squeak a few more inches out this morning before the trough axis exits the region sometime before noon. SSE winds on Pre Laurel Peak last night blew in the 20-25 mph range with gusts into the 40's before backing off and swinging to the SW around 3:00 a.m. They are currently averaging 15-20 mph gusting to 30's and it's 24 degrees at 10,000'.
Today look for mostly cloudy skies, lingering snow showers, and decreasing SW winds shifting to NW. High temps will be in the high 20's. Friday and Saturday look to be dry and mostly sunny with our next chance for snow on Sunday.
In spite of low new snow amounts, conditions are as good as I've ever seen for this time of year and this will provide a bit of a refresh. Total depth in Gold Basin is 37" while up high there is more than 4' of snow on sheltered slopes. Wind and sun have taken a toll on exposed surfaces, but nice, soft powder is still abundant in sheltered locations.
Reed Kennard was up yesterday sampling the early season snowpack and sent in this observation.
It's looking pretty white up there but the snowpack is still a little thin. Excercise caution in rocky and wooded terrain. Reed Kennard photo.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanche activity has been observed since after the Thanksgiving storm.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Generally speaking, our snowpack is stacking up about as good as can be hoped for. We had no snow on the ground until Nov 20, when we picked up 6"-12" of dense, heavy snow. That was followed by 25" on the 26th, and then a whopping 33" on the 29th! As a result, we do not have the dreaded loose, sugary, faceted weak layer at the base of the snowpack that we had last season, and that the rest of the state currently has. Nevertheless, some faceting has occurred in the basement. Extended column tests are not producing propagation on this layer, but it is worth paying attention to, especially in areas where a dense, hard slab can be found on top. See this observation from Dave Garcia.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today you may find some fresh, shallow wind drifts sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider but they shouldn't be much of an issue. Isolated, unstable areas of wind drifted snow may still exist on steep slopes that face NW-N-E at the highest elevations. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Old, hard wind slabs often feel hollow like a drum. Avoid steep slopes with areas of wind drifted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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