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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 1, 2019
Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep, upper elevation slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Avoid slopes with a smooth rounded appearance or that show signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. There also remains an isolated, or MODERATE danger for avalanches stepping down 2'-4' deep into buried, persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Northerly facing slopes with steep, rocky, and more radical terrain are the most suspect for this type of avalanche.
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Weather and Snow
The Abajo Mountains picked up about 6" of snow from yesterday's storm. Winds have been on the increase overnight and are averaging 15-20 mph along ridge tops. Temps are in the single digits and it's zero on Abajo Peak. Moderate northeasterly winds will continue today with wind chill values as low as -20. Snowfall should continue today with perhaps another 4"-8" possible. The rest of the week brings drying conditions and warmer temperatures with another system out there for the weekend.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Conditions are starting to look a lot better up there! Photo courtesy of Dustin Randall.
Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches within the new snow will be the primary concern today. with increasing winds, the new snow will blow around forming drifts and sensitive soft slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Be alert to areas of drifting snow and signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface, and avoid steep slopes where this is present.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On upper elevation, northerly aspects, snow has been sitting around on the ground since October. This has formed a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that makes an unstable base for new snow on top. In some areas it may be possible to trigger an avalanche 2'-3" deep down to these weak, sugary snow. Areas of steep, radical, and wind loaded terrain that faces the north half of the compass are where you are most likely to encounter this problem.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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