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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, March 5, 2021
The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE today along the Manti Skyline.
Human triggered avalanches breaking into weak snow near the ground are still a possibility in the right locations. The most likely spots would be on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have not avalanched yet and face northwest through east.
Personally, I have zero tolerance when it comes to a layer of buried loose faceted snow in the snowpack. The only steep slopes that I trust right now are those that have already avalanched.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: A little bit more snow trickled in yesterday morning bringing storm totals to 5 inches in the central part of the Manti Skyline. The northern end up near Fairview Canyon didn't do as well. Overnight temperatures remain mild along the ridges with most stations hovering in the upper 20s. The canyon and drainage bottoms are colder with readings in the teens. Northwest wind speeds were moderate on Thursday and have really slowed down overnight.
Mountain Weather: It looks like we have a string of clear days and warm weather ahead. Temperatures will be up around 40˚F in the higher terrain today and Saturday and a few degrees warmer Sunday and Monday. The wind will be light today but increasing from the southwest later. It'll get pretty strong on Saturday then slow again Sunday and Monday. The next chance for snow is a small storm along about Wednesday next week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snowpack continues to settle and stabilize. Unfortunately, the weak faceted snow at the base of the snowpack can't be put to bed yet. There is still a chance that a person could trigger an avalanche that breaks deep into the facets near the ground producing a sizable avalanche. If you can't live without getting into steeper terrain, your best bet is to utilize slopes that have already avalanched. It is fairly unlikely that any of these slopes that have previously avalanched will avalanche again right now. Check out the AVALANCHE MAP that contains locations of many recent avalanches.
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