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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, February 21, 2025
The avalanche danger on the Skyline is CONSIDERABLE today.
Watch for cracking within the new snow which indicates that it is unstable. The new snow will most likely be stable today but we need to treat it as guilty until proven innocent.
The more dangerous situation is the chance for an avalanche to break deeper into faceted snow. There is no good way to know which slopes will break deep and which won't. The only sure way to stay safe is to avoid slopes steeper than 30˚.
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
The Utah Avalanche Center is issuing a Special Avalanche Bulletin after a series of storms in the last week has left a thick blanket of snow at all elevations, creating excellent powder riding conditions while also elevating the backcountry avalanche danger. Don't let the fresh snow and sunshine influence your decision-making - avalanche conditions remain dangerous, and careful snowpack and terrain analysis are required for backcountry travel. Fortunately, there are great riding and travel conditions away from avalanche terrain on slopes less than 30° in steepness.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: I love it when storms produce more than I expect. Snowfall continued to trickle in on Thursday adding another 3 to 6 inches. This brings totals to 10 inches pretty evenly distributed between Fairview, Ephraim and 12 Mile canyons. The snow is good, right side up, powder. The wind was moderate in speed Thursday from the northwest and has decreased. It's calm to light this morning. Temperatures were in the low 20s on Thursday and dropped into the mid teens overnight. I think I can actually call the riding conditions good after that storm. Skiing has been quite good this week, snowmobiling just ok. I'm guessing that the snowmobiling conditions will be pretty decent today.
Mountain Weather: Temperatures today will get into the mid 20s and wind from the northwest will remain light. The big question is whether the clouds will clear. It looks like we may see things clear out mid day but there's also a chance that the moisture will linger around the peaks into the afternoon. High pressure moves in this weekend with sunny skies and a fairly significant warming trend. The next real chance for snow isn't until about March 4th.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
After every storm, the first thing we want to look at is how the new snow is behaving. I always look to see if the new snow is inverted or if I am noticing any cracking around my skis or machine. I do quick hand pits to see if I can get the new snow to shear. I use small steep test slopes to see if I can get the new snow to release.
During my travels on Thursday, it seemed to me that the new snow was well behaved. There was some drifting occurring in the higher terrain. These upper elevation steep slopes, especially more east facing are the most likely places to find trouble within the new snow today.
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Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's a tenuous situation with the buried sugary faceted layers of snow deeper in the snowpack.
The good:
  • This storm didn't add a huge amount of weight to the snowpack meaning that the buried weak layers didn't get stressed all that much.
  • We haven't seen very many avalanches breaking into older sugary weak layers.
The bad:
  • My partner and I experienced a collapse (Whoomp!) underneath us Thursday. This is a huge red flag. It means that we made one of the weak layers fail.
  • Faceted weak layers are notoriously dangerous and it is risky to trust any steep slope when you know that there are buried facets in the snowpack. We know there are buried facets right now.
If you're getting into steep terrain, it is very much like having scattered land mines. You might not hit one, but there's also a chance that you will and there's no good way to figure out where they are. Those odds aren't good enough for me. I'm holding my cards tight and staying away from slopes steeper than 30˚.
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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