Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, February 17, 2021
AVALANCHE DANGER REMAINS HIGH TODAY!!
Natural and human triggered avalanches are almost certain.
AVOID BEING ON OR BELOW ANY STEEP SLOPE.
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Avalanche Warning
THE AVALANCHE DANGER RANGES FROM HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...MANTI-SKYLINE...THE FISH LAKE REGION…PAHVANTS…TUSHARS…AND THE CEDAR CITY AREA MOUNTAINS.
VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The storm produced and it's not done yet. Most upper elevation locations received about a foot of snow in the last 24 hours. The wind has been consistent from the northwest with moderate to strong speeds. Colder air has moved in and overnight temperatures dropped to around 10˚F.
Mountain Weather: The showery storm event will continue today with periods of snow and additional accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Temperatures will remain cold with highs in the low teens. Northwest wind will continue to blow at moderate speeds and slow late today. This storm will end tonight and tomorrow looks like it will be clear. A day of nice weather is sure to bring lots of people out and there is little doubt that someone is going to trigger an avalanche. It could be deadly.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A group of riders in Ephraim Canyon were on Philadelphia Flats poking around a bit. One of them got stuck and other riders were helping. Yet another rider from the group came past when the group felt the snow suddenly drop and said it sounded like a "sonic boom". A cornice release hundreds of feet away from them. What happened is they collapsed the weak sugary faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. Once the collapse was initiated, it continued to collapse the weak layer away from them just like dominos. The video below shows test results with the same setup. This will happen all over the Skyline when people start venturing out. All you need is a steep slope and you will trigger an avalanche.