Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, December 29, 2021
The avalanche danger remains HIGH today with human triggered avalanches likely. Continue to avoid being on or below slopes steeper than 30˚.
Avalanche conditions are getting trickier now with fewer signs of instability like cracking and collapsing. It is getting harder to trigger an avalanche but if you do, it's going to go big.
Continue practicing patience and avoiding avalanche terrain until the snowpack stabilizes. I am optimistic that we will see stable conditions in the future, just give it some time.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
The snow kept falling through most of Tuesday and Tuesday night bringing another 10 inches in the last 24 hours. This brings us up to over 20 inches since Sunday. The wind has let off and temperatures are around 10˚F.
We have more than double the amount of snow on the ground compared to the same time last year. We are actually above average now for this time of the season.
Mountain Weather
We'll see cloudy skies, fairly light southwest wind and high temperatures in the teens. Hang on though because we have another storm moving in tonight with periods of snow expected through Friday. Weather models are advertising around 1.5" of water which could be over 15 inches of snow. At this point I'm expecting 10 to 15 inches of snow by Saturday morning. The weekend looks clear but cold.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
All the new snow we are receiving is exactly what the doctor ordered to help heal the persistent weak layer of snow at the base of our snowpack. However, don't get too comfortable! We don't call it a persistent weak layer for nothing. This sugary faceted snow can persist and produce avalanches long after you would think possible. We are sliding into the phase where the snowpack will be more stubborn and it is getting harder to trigger an avalanche but the avalanches are getting WAY bigger, wider and deeper. Here is what I need to see before I feel comfortable getting into avalanche terrain.
  • A large storm with no natural avalanches.
  • No more cracking or collapsing of the snowpack.
  • No more poor snowpit test results (ie no propagation of the weak layer)
  • A distinct increase in "hand hardness" of the weak layer. (we want to see the loose sugary snow become stiffer when you push on it with your hand)
Once I see all of the factors above, I will cautiously start to travel in avalanche terrain. Until then, it is just a roll of the dice.