Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, December 26, 2021
The avalanche danger remains HIGH today in upper elevation steep slopes that face northwest, north and northeast. Human triggered avalanches are very likely. Strong wind will continue to drift snow and make conditions more dangerous. Travel in avalanche terrain is DEFINITELY NOT RECOMMENDED!
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Avalanche Warning
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH WITH DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS.
AN AVALANCHE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE.
HEAVY DENSE SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS HAVE CREATED DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
The snow from the Christmas storm is very dense and quite deep making travel somewhat difficult. Strong wind has also formed drifts, crusts and an "upside down" feel to the surface snow. The snow is settling and should make a good supportable base.
Mountain Weather
We'll see periods of snow today and Monday. I'm expecting 8 to 12 inches of new snow by the time it's all done. The wind is going to be very strong today. It slows down a little bit later today but looks to remain strong through Monday. Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid to upper teens.
Recent Avalanches
We got verification that a pretty widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred on Friday during the storm. These slab avalanches were breaking 2 to 4 feet deep and hundreds of feet wide. These were the real deal, nothing to toy with.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of sugary faceted snow from October continues to be dangerous. It's going to be tricky for a little while since red flags such as cracking and collapsing are not so in your face now. The snowpack is much more stubborn at this point. I did not experience a single collapse or "whoomp" of the snowpack on Saturday. All the new dense snow that we received is just what we needed to help stabilize the layer of faceted snow. However, this doesn't just happen overnight. Faceted snow is slow to heal and it is still very likely that a person could trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche today. Now the only we to tell if there is buried weak snow is to dig and perform stability tests on that layer.
Additional Information
  • Always follow safe backcountry travel protocols. Go one person at a time in avalanche terrain, while the rest of your party watches from a safe area.
  • Check your avalanche rescue equipment, change your batteries, and practice often with your backcountry partners.
  • Be very careful, keep your speed down, and stay in control. Encounters with shallowly buried rocks or down trees in the early season have led to many season-ending injuries.