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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, November 30, 2024
The overall avalanche danger is currently CONSIDERABLE.
The danger trend is decreasing meaning that each day it is becoming less likely to an avalanche.
However, very weak snow still remains at that bottom of the snowpack. If provoked by humans, it is likely to fail and cause an avalanche.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The wind from the west picked up a bit along the highest terrain on Friday. It was enough to transport some snow and be a little annoying if you were standing on a peak or high ridge. Riding conditions remained excellent out of the wind. Temperatures were fairly mild overnight with most high elevation stations reading in mid 20s. It looks like the wind has been slowing slightly over the last few hours.
Mountain Weather: We'll see moderate speed west wind again along the highest terrain. Temperatures should max out in the mid 30s. Skies will be clear. We'll see this same pattern over the next week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On Friday, I traveled on Snowmobile and skis from the Miller Flat parking lot up to the Big Meadow which is nearby. The overall snowpack is notably shallower here compared to the central Skyline where I've been the past few days. This shallower snowpack is overall weaker. I experienced collapsing (whumpfing) of the snowpack all day. This is a major red flag.
The weak faceted sugary snow near the ground is still our biggest threat. It will continue to settle and stabilize but it's a very slow process. That said, I never feel comfortable when there are buried facets. I've seen it time and again; you think everything has stabilized and then BAM, you're taking a ride in a slide. Avoiding steep slopes is the only sure way to avoid this situation.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The wind drifted snow which formed scattered slabs around the highest terrain on Friday. I did not notice that any of these were particularly sensitive on their own. Really, the biggest problem with these fresh drifts and slabs is that they just enhance the problem with the buried weak sugary snow near the ground. You are more likely to trigger an avalanche that breaks into weak snow near the ground in areas where these drifts formed.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.