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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, January 8, 2023
The overall avalanche danger is rated MODERATE today.
Human triggered avalanches are becoming less likely but if you trigger one, it's going to be deep and nasty.
It is not "green light" conditions and I'm personally avoiding big, steep terrain still. The snowpack is going in a great direction but I still have trouble completely trusting it.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Wow. Saturday was one of those days. Plenty of sun and epic riding conditions. Temperatures briefly got into the upper 20s and are back down around 20 this morning. Wind from the southwest stayed pretty light with some moderate speeds later in the day. It's been pretty light overnight.
Mountain Weather: Sun will filter through high clouds this morning. There's a slight chance for a few flakes of snow as the day goes on. Southwest wind will probably increase and get stronger especially along the northern portion of the Skyline. Wind may stay fairly light along the southern end. Temperatures will get into the mid to upper 20s. A decent looking stormy period starting Monday night should produce a nice amount of snow for us. Rough estimates are around a foot of snow through mid week.
Recent Avalanches
The only avalanches that were reported on Saturday were old news. They were avalanches that were still visible from the natural cycle last weekend.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snowpack continues to settle, consolidate and stabilize. There is 3 to 4 feet of consolidated snow on top of the old Persistent Weak Layer that formed in November. This is a good thing. It is creating a strong bridge over the weak layer and at the same time it continues to press down on the weak layer, compacting it and making it stronger. This is a slow process but it's happening.
The only thing I don't like is that I can still get the weak layer to fracture and propagate clean in snow pit stability tests. It takes a lot of force to get the failure but it is clean when it fails. Eventually the fracturing will stop but it still makes me a bit uneasy. One thing I've learned is not to mess with buried sugary faceted layers of snow. I'll give it a little more time before stepping out.
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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