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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, January 7, 2022
There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on mid and upper elevation northwest, north and northeast facing steep slopes. Although they are becoming less likely to trigger, a person could trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche.
I personally need to see the old weak sugary snow from October gain some more strength before I feel comfortable on steep north facing slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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FREE AVALANCHE AWARENESS CLASS!!
Thursday, January 13, 7pm
Big Pine Sports, Fairview, Utah
Dinner provided!!
Come learn more about avalanche safety. Topics include:
  • How to read avalanche terrain
  • Basic snowpack structure knowledge
  • How to use the daily avalanche forecast
  • Overview of manditory safety gear (beacon, shovel, and probe) as well as air bag information
  • Q & A to help with any questions you may have
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Temperatures remain very warm with most mountain stations around 30˚F. Westerly wind slowed on Thursday and is light to moderate in speed along the higher terrain.
Mountain Weather
We have another mild sunny day ahead. Ridgetop temperatures are going to get up into the low 30s. It looks like southwest wind will increase in speed mid day. A minor storm system moves through tonight with the chance for a trace to a couple of inches of new snow. A ridge of high pressure will move in bringing benign weather for the next couple of weeks. No storms are in sight at this time.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The stretch of unusually warm weather should be good to help settle and consolidate the snow pack more. I'll be out in the backcountry today sniffing around and paying close attention to the buried persistent weak layer. Hopefully I'll see continued improvement. What I'm looking for is an increase in the stiffness of the buried sugary faceted weak layer. I'm also hoping that snowpit tests stop failing and propagating on the weak layer.
Persistent Weak Layer Summary, 2021-2022:
There was a foot or more of snow that fell in October.
This snow melted away on many slopes but it stayed on northwest, north and northeast facing slopes above about 8500'.
The snow that stayed turned into a weak sugary layer during dry weather in November.
We saw a large amount of snow in December which landed on top of the weak snow from October.
The weak layer of sugary faceted snow collapsed and produced avalanches under the stress of the large storms.
The weak layer is still present. We are monitoring it and are hopeful it will become more stable with time.
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
CAMERAS & WEATHER STATIONS
INSTAGRAM: SKYLINE_AVALANCHE
FACEBOOK: SKYLINE AVALANCHE
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