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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Saturday morning, February 27, 2021
Areas of CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER exist in the Provo mountains. Fresh wind drifts may be the most widespread avalanche problem, but some avalanches still have the potential to step down into older weaker layers 3-6' deep in localized terrain. I continue to avoid being on or beneath steep terrain in the Provo area mountains.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Monday's Livestream recording of the Wilson Glades avalanche accident debrief and review can be found on our YouTube channel HERE and on the UAC podcast.
Weather and Snow
Overnight snow totals are up 1-2" in the Provo mountains but closer to a foot in the upper reaches of American Fork.
Temperatures have plummeted with frontal passage, with many thermometers parked in the single digits and below zero at 11,000'. Wind chill at 11k is -28°F.
West to northwest winds are blowing 15-20mph with gusts to 30. They've trended down over the last several hours.
Occasional flurries will continue through the day with another inch or two possible.
Westerly winds will blow 15-20 before veering to the north this afternoon. Skies will start to clear overnight.
Greg Gagne's patented Week in Review can be found HERE. It covers Friday Feb 19- Thursday 25th
Recent Avalanches
None.
You can read all the recent observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Our deep slab avalanches, while becoming increasingly stubborn, can roar back to life with any additional stress, ie: heavy snowfall, strong winds, etc. Cornices may also be a good trigger for these larger avalanches. We haven't heard of any avalanches into this old layering 3-6' deep for a week or so, but they very much remain central to my route selection. These deeper slabs exist on all aspects at the upper elevations and on west to north to southeast facing slopes at the mid elevations. You are more likely to trigger these in steep, thin, rocky terrain or areas that may have avalanched during previous cycles.
These avalanches are tricky insofar that immediate signs of instability are often not present and it's easy to be lured onto slopes with other tracks, particularly when snow depths and snow tests might point "stable". The problem is the wide spatial variability across many slopes where you might hit the trigger point here (where the slab is thinner) but not there (where the slab is thicker).
My travel advice is to continue to avoid being on or beneath steep terrain where the facets in the basement exist. See Trent holding onto the weak sugary faceted snow he's pulled out of the bottom of the snowpack.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifts may be found to the lee of ridgelines and cross-loaded across the corrugated landscape from sub-ridges into gullies will also be general. The winds are perfect for wind loading. Drifts may be up to 2' deep along the higher elevations and may break above you in steep terrain. NOTE that the locator rose signifies where drifts are most problematic. Terrain channeling may have drifts on all aspects, particularly at the mid elevations and well off the ridgelines.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.