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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Sunday morning, December 15, 2019
A CONSIDERABLE DANGER exists on many mid and upper elevation slopes. The danger is most pronounced on steep northwest to easterly facing terrain at the mid and upper elevations. In this terrain, human triggered slides may step down 3-4' deep and hundreds of feet wide. This terrain is to be avoided.
A Word to the Wise - Low angle south and west facing terrain: Low Risk - High Reward
If this is too much, enjoy the powder at one of our world class ski resorts.
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Special Announcements
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds support the UAC. Get your tickets HERE.
Consider taking an avalanche class, there are many different options. Click on the Education menu for a full list of classes from the UAC and other providers. Check out the Know Before You Go eLearning program for free, online, avalanche classes.
New UAC podcast: Betting Your Life (Why Forecasting is Poker and Not Chess) - A Conversation With Jenna Malone.
Weather and Snow
Storm totals across the range are below. Winds now are 10mph from the west; temps are in the low teens - all what I'd call Powder Preservation Weather. We now sit at 110-150% of average for the winter (courtesy of our partners here at the NWS - the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center). 5 star mid-December snow coverage sits at 3-4' in the mountains.
LCC - 31" (3.64"SWE)
BCC - 35" (3.50"SWE)
PC Ridgeline - 18" (2.0"SWE)
Ogden mountains - 20-30" (2.5-4.0"SWE)
Provo mountains - 18" (2.0"SWE)
Recent Avalanches
UDOT Provo Canyon avalanche forecasters reported large avalanches in the vicinity of Aspen Grove (Elk Point, just up canyon from Sundance) yesterday with good avalanche debris piles in the runout zones. Ski area control teams also found quite active storm snow avalanches during control work.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Large and bone-breaking avalanches 3-4' deep may still be triggered on steep northwest to east facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. These are unmanageable avalanches and are not to be trifled with. Collapsing and cracking may or may not be evident but now that the structure exists and this terrain should be avoided for now.
Short term: In the short term, this wallop of a storm is more than enough to stress and overload the old pre-existing PWL (persistent weak layer) formed in the late autumn. Your weight will additionally stress this unstable structure - and you may do so from above, adjacent, or below the steep terrain.
Long term: the deeper snowpack will help to slowly strengthen the faceted snow, the structure will trend more stable, and much deeper snow makes it more difficult to trigger and activate these basal weak layers. Soon, but not now.
Take the long view.
Click on the button below for more details on how this layer formed and where you can find it.
Click here for info about this layer and where it exists
TRAVEL ADVICE: Stay off of and out from underneath steep northwest to east facing terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New snow avalanches may still be triggered on many steep slopes at the mid and upper elevations and running on crusts formed earlier in the week. Cracking and collapsing, particularly in wind drifted terrain, are signs of instability.
Additional Information
Avalanche Rescue is the real deal. You must feel completely confident that you can pull off an avalanche rescue if things go wrong today. Even this may not save the day as roughly 1/4-1/3 of all fatalities are due to traumatic injury. If there is an avalanche accident, CALL 911 and say this is a backcountry emergency. But make no mistake - YOU NEED TO PULL OFF THE RESCUE, AND MOST LIKELY YOU HAVE ONLY 15-20 MINUTES TO DO SO.
KNOW THAT RESCUE TEAMS ASSUME A GREAT DEAL OF RISK in coming in to help injured or avalanched parties. AS ALWAYS, PLEASE OBEY CLOSURES AND UPHILL POLICY RESTRICTIONS AS INDICATED BY SKI AREAS AND UDOT.
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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