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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Wednesday morning, January 27, 2021
The avalanche danger will be on the rise today and we may be at HIGH danger again later tonight into tomorrow. Dangerous avalanche conditions will become more widespread in the backcountry.
A CONSIDERABLE DANGER exists on many freshly wind loaded slopes in the mid and upper elevations. Natural avalanches are possible; human triggered avalanches are increasingly likely.
Some of these avalanches may be triggered at a distance...and some of these may step down into older weak layers, leading to a larger and more destructive avalanche.
Low angle slopes are the ticket for the next several days.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
SPECIAL NOTE: HALF OF ALL SKIER/SNOWBOARDER FATALITIES SINCE 99/00 HAVE OCCURRED WITH PEOPLE GOING OUT OF BOUNDS AT A SKI AREA.
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together.
Weather and Snow
It's starting to get interesting.
In the big picture, a strengthening storm off the California coast along with what the NWS is calling a "very significant and unusual atmospheric river event" will pummel the Golden State with unbelievable amounts of precipitation. We'll see wind, warming temperatures, and an upside down trend in snow densities over the next 48 hours.
Currently in the Provo area mountains, skies are mostly cloudy. The Provo mountains picked up 2-4" of snow in the past 24 hours with some densities measured at 3-4%. It's cold smoke.
Mountain temperatures are in the single digits to mid-teens.
The WINDS WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER FOR TODAY, however. I expect to see moderate to strong winds today from the southwest. Along the 11k ridgelines in the Central Wasatch, hourly wind speeds are 55mph with gusts to 70.

For today, we'll see light snowfall and moderate to strong southwest winds. The winds may take a breather this afternoon but will only return and redouble their efforts overnight. Higher density snow and strong winds are expected for tomorrow. We may see 6-10" by tomorrow evening. Perhaps more in areas favored by a southwest flow.
Recent Avalanches
We had no reports of new avalanches in the Provo area mountains yesterday but we do know that the Provo mountains went through a significant avalanche cycle over the weekend. Numerous natural dangerous avalanches ripped out on many aspects and elevations with one full burial in out of bounds terrain of Sundance resort. He was luckily rescued.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New and developing wind drifts will likely run naturally today and be sensitive to human provocation on many steep slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Over the past 18 hours, the winds have transported snow from east-southeast as well as southwest. Soft drifts will be found around the compass but more predominantly on west to north to east facing aspects. These drifts will be landing on very low density stellar dendrite snowflakes, well known to be very efficient if not tricky weak layers. Some drifts may triggered at a distance. Remember that shooting cracks are sure signs of unstable wind drifts.
*Note that due to the gusty nature of these winds, drifts may be found well off the ridgelines and eddied in unusual terrain features.
*Note also that we did not see a lot of wind with last Friday/Saturday's storm and there is a lot of snow available for transport.
TREND: INCREASING DANGER
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Our weak layers are proliferating and our complex snowpack is becoming more complex. Today and tomorrow's snow and wind will only add additional stress to one if not both buried persistent weak layers.
The two most problematic weak layers are described below -
- A layer of faceted snow and various patches of surface hoar buried last Friday, now roughly a foot deep. Natural and human triggered avalanches in this layering have occurred in the past several days.
- The old dragons in the basement - facets and depth hoar from the early low tide conditions at and near the base of the snowpack, now buried 2-4' deep. Human triggered avalanches in this layering have occurred in the past several days.
TREND: INCREASING DANGER
Additional Information
Find the podcast HERE....or find the Utah Avalanche Center podcast wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.