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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Saturday morning, January 16, 2021
The avalanche danger is MODERATE at the upper elevations as well as mid-elevations facing west, north, through east where it is possible to trigger a large avalanche failing in a buried persistent weak layer.
Any avalanche could be 1-3' deep and over 100' wide. You may also find reactive soft and hard slabs of wind-drifted snow at the upper elevations as well as some mid-elevation slopes. This is not a time to let your guard down - continue to practice cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making.
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Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Overnight, a weak storm moved overhead on a west-northwest flow and delivered a trace to an inch of new snow to some areas in the Provo mountains. Any lingering snow showers won't last long as the storm exits the stadium around 10:00 am. As the storm moves east, we will see partly cloudy to clearing skies as high pressure builds back for the weekend. Another small storm arrives on Monday.
Current mountain temperatures are in the high teens to low 20's °F throughout the range. Winds did pick up overnight from the west-northwest and are currently blowing 40-50 mph at 11,000'. Most 10,000' ridgeline winds are blowing 10-15 mph with gusts into the low 20's mph.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported from the backcountry on Friday. You can find all the backcountry observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We have a poor snowpack structure with strong snow over weak snow. And although we have received no snow this past week, there has been moderate to strong winds the past few days that have created areas with a denser slab of wind-blown snow on top of this weaker faceted snow. Over this past week there have been fewer avalanches and less collapsing and cracking reported, but some recent field observations in the Salt Lake mountains still report full propagation with extended column tests, indicating the propensity of the slab to propagate if you did get a collapse of the buried persistent weak layer.
This poor structure is present on mid and upper elevation slopes facing west, through north, to southeast. Although avalanches are becoming less common, they are still possible and I would not be surprised to hear of another human-triggered avalanche failing on this buried persistent weak layer and I personally will continue to avoid slopes steeper than 30° in this suspect terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds from the past few days have created hard drifts of windblown snow in isolated areas at the mid and upper elevations. Overnight, strong winds and a little bit of new snow will likely have created a fresh batch of small soft slabs across the upper elevation terrain. In either case, the wind has drifted snow, creating shallow soft and hard slabs in steep leeward terrain.
The winds have been primarily from the west/northwest. However, when winds are this strong, they can work through terrain and create drifts on almost any aspect. Fresh wind drifts often look pillowy, smooth, and rounded. Old hard drifts of windblown snow will feel stiff and sound hollow like a drum. As always, keep an eye out for drifts of windblown snow and avoid those areas.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.