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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 7, 2020
Most terrain has generally LOW danger but I feel there are enough isolated problem areas out there to warrant an overall MODERATE danger rating. Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow and buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow are still possible on steep, N-E facing slopes, particularly in areas of rocky, or more extreme terrain. Shallow areas near rock outcroppings or along slope margins are likely trigger points. Even a small avalanche triggered in the wrong area can have devastating consequences. And finally, with daytime heating, we may see some loose, wet avalanche activity on sun-exposed slopes. Avoid steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road is a mix of dirt, mud and packed snow that gets sloppy later in the day.
Grooming Report: Trails into Gold Basin were groomed yesterday, and Geyser Pass through the Loppet Loop were rolled out.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 13" Base Depth in Gold Basin 54" Wind S 25 G35 mph Temp 31F
Weather: A few clouds are hanging over the mountains this morning. Today we should see partly sunny skies for a while with more clouds moving in later today. We'll continue to see moderate to strong southerly winds with gusts as high as 40 along ridge tops. High temps at 10,000' will be in the low to mid 40's. A slight chance for showers should develop tonight. Tomorrow we'll see mostly cloudy skies and maybe a trace of snow.
Snowpack: Spring-like conditions are in effect with melt-freeze crusts on sun exposed slopes that become moist during the day. Some of these slopes may be supportable in the morning with pre-corn like conditions. Northerly facing, wind exposed terrain is scoured and crusted, while some soft, powdery snow can still be found on sheltered aspects.
In my travels up around Geyser Pass yesterday I found plenty of loose, weak sugary snow hanging around on shady aspects and in some areas, this underlying snow is still completely unsupportable. On sun exposed slopes the upper layers are becoming saturated.
Loose, weak, faceted snow makes up much of the underlying snowpack on shady aspects.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind slabs are becoming more difficult to trigger, but you may still find some areas of unstable, wind drifted snow in the high country particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Wind slabs may be triggered on top of an underlying slick, hard surface, or loose, weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. Beware of slopes that have a smooth, rounded, or rippled appearance or that sound and feel hollow like a drum. Pay attention to the leeward sides of subtle terrain features such as steep convexities, or the sides of gully walls where slabs form. On the shadiest slopes, a triggered wind slab has the potential to step down deeper into a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches involving recent or wind drifted snow have the potential to step down into buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, northerly facing slopes where the underlying snowpack is unsupportable, or where buried layers of near-surface facets exist. Shallow areas around rock outcroppings or along the margins of slopes are likely trigger points. Exercise caution in steep, northerly-facing terrain and keep an eye toward consequences such as being scraped over rocks or into trees.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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