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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Wednesday morning, March 26, 2025
This morning, the danger is MODERATE on steep sunny slopes that face W-S-E and northerly aspects below treeline. As the day heats up, the danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE, and natural and human-triggered avalanches involving wet snow are LIKELY. Most activity will involve wet-loose avalanches, but the potential for wet slab avalanches is increasing each day. Pay attention to the snow surface, and start and end your day early to increase your margin of safety.
The danger is MODERATE on steep slopes facing W-N-E near and above treeline, and on northerly aspects below. In these areas deep and dangerous, human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible. The danger is greatest on steep slopes near treeline that face N-NE. While the likelihood of triggering this type of avalanche is decreasing, the consequences remain severe.
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Construction will resume on the Loop Road today. It will be closed near Pack Creek from 8:30-5:30.
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and is melting out down to the dirt.
Grooming Conditions: Trails were last groomed on Thursday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 121" Depth at Gold Basin: 46"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SSW 5-10 MPH Temp: 30° F
Weather
Under clear skies it is 30° F in Gold Basin this morning. Southerly winds were light overnight on the ridge tops. Today will be sunny with a near-record high of 57° F at 10,000' and SW winds will blow 5-10 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH. High pressure dominates into Thursday with temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal. A Pacific storm on Friday will push inland on a SW flow, resulting in windy conditions for southeast Utah. Temperatures will drop 10° F on Friday. Light snow showers will develop Friday night and Saturday. It doesn't look like much snow, but temperatures should return to normal by Saturday.
General Conditions
Spring conditions are in full effect with a mixed bag of sun and wind-affected surfaces, and areas of soft, settled powder on sheltered northerly aspects. Temperatures dipped just below the freezing point last night, allowing for a shallow refreeze. Spring-like conditions on the sunny slopes will be your best bet for fun turning and riding today. I found excellent turns on a high-elevation SE aspect yesterday. Given the shallow overnight refreeze and even warmer temperatures today, the window for this type of skiing will be short this morning. The strategy is to get up early and make your exit when things start to get wet and sloppy. Riding the sunny slopes is also a great way to avoid the lingering persistent weak layer problem. Poor snowpack structure remains on slopes that face W-N-E. While this problem is becoming harder to trigger it is still possible for skiers and riders to trigger deep and dangerous avalanches on these slopes. Steep northerly, convex, shallow rocky zones remain the most suspect areas.
Many solar aspects are melting out quickly.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
I observed several small wet-loose avalanches in upper Dark Canyon yesterday.
See the complete avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The mountains got a shallow refreeze last night which will allow a short window for skiing the solars this morning. Get after it early today, and you will want to make your exit before things get too warm. It's all about timing, and the danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE on sunny slopes as the day heats up. Natural and human-triggered avalanches involving wet snow will become likely. We will mostly see wet-loose avalanches, but the potential for wet-slab avalanches is increasing each day. Slopes that face south and southwest have several melt-freeze crusts where melt water can pool and cause a deeper wet slab avalanche. West aspects have faceted weak layers that are relatively close to the surface. If melt water reaches these layers, we may see deep and dangerous wet slabs on these slopes.
There is some uncertainty regarding the faceted weak layers on northerlies. It will most likely take more time and warming for any wet slab activity on these slopes. Faceted snow packs can be somewhat unpredictable during rapid warming events. The conservative choice is to let the heat wave play out and wait for a solid refreeze this weekend.
The danger follows the sun, with east-facing slopes heating up first, then south, and then west. Signs of instability include roller balls, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of, and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present. Even a small wet-loose avalanche can have high consequences in complex terrain. Be aware of what is below you, and think about what might happen if you get knocked off your feet by a wet avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure remains on slopes that face W-N-E. Abundant snowfall in March has built a well connected dense slab 2-3 feet thick above weak layers of faceted snow. These layers have been very slow to heal this season due to relatively shallow snow depths. With each passing day, it is becoming harder to trigger an avalanche on these weak layers. You will not experience cracking and collapsing, and the snowpack will feel strong beneath your skis. Even though the chances of triggering an avalanche are becoming less, we have a structure that most snow professionals won't trust their lives with. The most suspect areas are very steep northerly aspects, and likely trigger points are steep convexities, thin slab margins, and shallow rocky areas. If you are biting off pieces of avalanche terrain, choose smooth planar slopes with clean run-out zones.
I dug this pit on Sunday on a north-facing slope. The overlying slab is dense, with mostly 4F to 1F snow. A dense slab like this will most likely bridge the weight of a skier, but if you find a shallower snowpack zone, the weight of a human can trigger an avalanche on the weak fist-density facets. A triggered slide would likely take out the entire season's snowpack down to the depth hoar.
Additional Information
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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