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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, February 24, 2025
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger can still be found on steep, northerly aspects near treeline. In these areas, human triggered avalanches 2 feet deep or more, failing on a persistent weak layer of faceted snow are likely.
The danger is MODERATE on all other slopes facing W-N-E, and on upper elevation, SE aspects. Moderate does not mean good to go, and human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer remain possible, to highly possible, especially on steep northerly aspects. In these areas, you are trusting a slab over a very weak layer and hoping you don't find the "sweet" spot to trigger a dangerous avalanche.
Most south facing terrain has LOW danger. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features are possible. This includes loose wet slides as the day heats up. Avoid steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed to the winter trailhead. It remains slick and snow packed. AWD and good tires recommended.
Grooming Conditions: All trails were last groomed on Friday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 82" Depth at Gold Basin: 39"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: WNW 10-15 Temp: 27° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 67%
Weather
Skies are mostly clear with a few high clouds, west northwest winds are blowing light to moderate along ridge tops, and it's a balmy 27°F in Gold Basin. Look for mostly sunny skies today with light northwesterly winds, and high temperatures in the low 40's at 10,000'. Little change is in store for the near future. Next chance for snow looks to be later in the first week of March.
General Conditions
It's been 10 days since the Valentine's Day storm and a strong sun and warm temperatures are taking a toll. South facing slopes are either crusted over or beginning to melt back out. Sheltered, northerly aspects still have soft, dry powder and herein lies the rub. The snowpack in these areas, especially near treeline and below, has some of the poorest structure I've ever seen. The Valentine's storm has produced a strong, cohesive slab up to 2 feet thick on top of a layer of very weak, faceted snow, and the pack below that isn't much stronger. And although outward signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing have decreased, the balance is precarious at best. Strangely enough, things are a little better above treeline. The weak layer isn't as widespread due to heavy wind scouring and surface hardening during the long January high pressure. The problem, however, is in knowing where it is, and where it isn't. And in some cases you're splitting hairs as to where near treeline ends, and above treeline begins. The bottom line is that neither Dave, nor I, are considering skiing any steep, northerly facing terrain, possibly for the duration of the season. It's just too risky with the current setup.
In my travels up to Geyser Pass I observed this snowmobile triggered slab on a steep road cut. This is what we call a test slope. If you observe this kind of thing, it's an obvious red flag.
Also, check out this recent observation from Chris Benson.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Valentine's Day storm has built a dense, cohesive slab on top of our weak, underlying snowpack. On northerly aspects, the entire snowpack is faceted through with varying degrees of hardness, but a layer of fist hard facets exist directly beneath the slab. Outward signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing have decreased significantly but they are still being observed and stability tests remain reactive. The bottom line is that human triggered avalanches up to 2 feet deep or more, failing on this weak layer remain highly possible. The danger is most prevalent on northerly aspects near treeline but don't think you can outsmart it by changing elevation. For the foreseeable future, I'll be avoiding all slopes steeper than 30 degrees on all northerly aspects.
As you wrap around to west, the problem still exists and it's a fine line between shady and sunny. Many westerly aspects still present as northerly if there are trees to provide shade. West facing slopes should be considered guilty until proven innocent, and a slope by slope analysis is required.
South facing slopes are now cooked off or crusted over and we should be through with concerns there. The exception is on upper elevation, SE aspects. Due to the high altitude, these slopes often present as easterly, thereby preserving weak, faceted snow. We don't have much current information from these areas so they should be assumed guilty until proven otherwise.
Photo illustrates very poor snowpack structure on a northeast aspect at 10,700'. An extended column test produced results of ECTP 24.
Additional Information
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.