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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, February 24, 2023
Very strong winds and significant snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry.
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. Unstable slabs of wind drifted snow up to 2' deep have formed in these areas and are in some cases, resting on a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow. All north facing slopes steeper than 30 degrees should be avoided.

A MODERATE danger exists on all other aspects and elevations where human triggered avalanches involving slabs of recent and wind drifted snow are possible.

Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface, and avoid wind drifted slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road was plowed yesterday.
Grooming: All trails are covered in fresh snow today.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 5" 72 Hour Snow 18" Season Total Snow 216" Base Depth at Gold Basin 82"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak SW 25-35 G50 Temp 15 F

Weather
SW winds continue their reign of terror as a shortwave trough moves through the southwest jet stream. Snow showers diminish this morning but we'll continue to see blustery SW winds decreasing slightly later today. Temps will be significantly warmer than yesterday creeping up into the low 20's. We'll see a break in the action and a chance for a little sunshine on Saturday before the next Pacific low works it's way into the region on Sunday. An unsettled pattern remains on track for next week.

General Conditions
Yesterday was the coldest day I've spent in the mountains all winter! With above treeline temps hovering around 1F, and SW winds blowing in the 35-45 mph range, it was borderline dangerous out there even without taking into account the avalanche conditions. Blowing and drifting of the most recent snow is the primary concern, with the deepest drifts occurring on northerly aspects. Above treeline, slopes are alternately scoured and drifted, but great turning and riding can be found in sheltered areas.

Snowpack and Weather Data
The Gold Basin storm stake seems to be acting up this morning or it may be recording drifted snow. I'm going with the SNOTEL site for data today.
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported. See the La Sal Avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches involving recent and wind drifted snow will be possible on all aspects today. I've lumped the two problems together as I think it will be hard to find unstable snow that hasn't been wind affected to some extent but storm slab avalanches may also be possible. The deepest and most dangerous drifts will be found on leeward slopes that face NW-N-NE-E. On some northerly facing slopes, deeper drifts have formed on top of a layer of weak, faceted snow. On these slopes a triggered wind drift cold step down to this buried weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
On all other aspects, look for recent deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of subtle terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock out crops. Also look for slab like properties in the recent snow such as blocks between your skis on the skin trail, as well as signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow formed on the surface of northerly facing slopes during a dry period earlier this month. It was subsequently buried by a foot of snow from the Valentine's Day storm. The distribution of this weak layer is somewhat spotty - meaning we are finding it on some slopes, and not on others. The only way to know where it exists for sure is to get out your shovel and dig. We have a fair amount of uncertainty as to how this weak layer will react to the new load, and how widespread the problem is. For now, all steep, north facing terrain should be considered dangerous with human triggered avalanches likely.
Additional Information
Are you wondering how cell phones and other electronic devices can interfere with your avalanche transceiver? The "20/50 Rule" is that you want your beacon 20cm (8") away from other electronics while transmitting and 50cm (20") away from electronics while searching. Get the full scoop here.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.