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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, February 13, 2020
It's becoming more difficult to trigger an avalanche and most terrain has generally LOW danger. A very isolated or MODERATE danger for human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow still exists on upper elevation slopes facing N-NE-SE. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and they may sound or feel hollow like a drum. In areas of more radical, extreme terrain, where the underlying snow is shallow and weak, a triggered wind drift may cause a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Are you looking to improve your avalanche skills? We are offering a Backcountry 101: Introduction to Avalanches class on February 15-16 in Moab. Click here to register A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs.
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but snowpacked and icy in places. Thanks Grand County!
Grooming report: LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) groomed the lower meadow and into Gold Basin yesterday. Thanks Gerrish!
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 1" Base Depth in Gold Basin 48" Wind NW 10-20 G30 mph Temp 5F
Weather: I'm sure I'm not the only one. Who else is bored with the winter weather pattern of 2020 so far? The storm train out of the Pacific Northwest has brought epic conditions to the Tetons, Wasatch, and northern and central Rockies while leaving us high and dry most of the time this year. Even the San Juans have managed to get in on the action. But we've been just south and west enough to be off the track. Look for more sunny skies today with light to moderate NW winds, and high temps in the upper 20's. Conditions will remain dry through Saturday with our next glimmer of hope coming Sunday into Monday. This system also looks to be on the same track but with a possible split in the flow. That could be good for us, or not.
Snowpack: On top, conditions are widely variable. Underneath, the snowpack is taking the form of a mid-season continental snowpack on an average year, with varying depths and strengths minus the depth hoar. In most areas above about 10,500', the pack is deep and strong with a depth of 4'-5'. But sun and wind-exposed slopes, and rocky areas right around treeline and below have shallower and weaker snow. In most cases, these weaker snow areas are not yet a problem. Isolated concerns exist in areas of steep, rocky, or sparsely wooded extreme terrain where wind drifted snow has been added to the underlying weak snow.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Aerial observer Chris Benson was out flying around taking pictures on Tuesday of our wind ravaged snowpack. Read his observation and see more pictures here.
Chris Benson photo.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind slabs are difficult to trigger and have become quite stiff and hard in most locations. They are also isolated, often existing adjacent to wind-scoured surfaces with subtle terrain features making all the difference. Look for them on the lee sides of terrain features such as sub-ridges, rock buttresses, and gully walls. Steep convexities and blind break-overs well downslope are also likely areas to encounter a rogue wind slab. Approach steep terrain with caution, and suspect areas that sound or feel hollow like a drum.
Avalanche Problem #2
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Areas with weak snow are developing in our snowpack but they aren't under enough of a load at this time to constitute a persistent weak layer problem. Nevertheless, it may be possible to trigger an avalanche down to some weak snow, particularly in areas where there is an overriding wind slab. Weak snow can be found on many aspects and elevations where the snowpack is shallow, but the most likely area for you to encounter a problem is on very steep, rocky, radical, or sparsely wooded, north and easterly facing terrain just below treeline where the snowpack is less than about 4' deep. Under any conditions, this type of terrain should be approached with caution. Upper elevation, SE facing slopes also remain suspect.
Additional Information
Local observer, and environmental sedimentologist Chris Benson, has prepared these charts to track avalanche, weather, and snowpack data over the past 2 weeks. It's a great way to see the history of what's been going on up there, and how weather events correspond to the daily danger rating. Snow data is from the Snotel site at the Geyser Pass Trailhead at 9600'. This site receives considerably less snow than the Gold Basin plot at 10,000', but it also measures Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), or water weight within the snow. This measurement is far more important to avalanche forecasters than snow amounts. Thanks Chris!
General Announcements
My radio interview on KZMU about the history of backcountry skiing in the La Sals, avalanche accidents, and unique snowpack has been saved in perpetuity. You can listen to it here.
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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