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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, December 30, 2022
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist and are expected to rise over the weekend.
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely on all aspects at all elevations. Dense, heavy, and wind drifted snow has overloaded buried persistent weak layers creating dangerous conditions in the backcountry. On northerly aspects, human triggered avalanches up to 4' deep are likely. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills, and know how to avoid being on or under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Watch
What The avalanche danger is expected to increase to HIGH this weekend.
When The Watch is in effect from 6am MST this morning to 6am MST Saturday and will most likely turn into an Avalanche Warning on Saturday.
Where For most mountains in Utah including Wasatch Range, Bear River Range, Uinta Range, Manti-Skyline, La Sal and Abajo Ranges, Fish Lake Region, Pavant Range, Tushar Range, and Cedar City area mountains.
Impacts Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected as a series of storms will arrive this weekend with significant snowfall, substantial water amounts, and very strong winds. Both human-triggered and natural avalanches will become likely. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County plowed yesterday but it's still kind of sporty and soft near the top. 4x4 with good tires recommended.
Grooming: LUNA will be up packing trails out today.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow T" 72 Hour Snow 13" Season Total Snow 99" Base Depth at Gold Basin 50"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak SW 10-15 Temp 17F
Weather
A large storm system off the Gulf of Alaska will begin it's trek our way today. This will bring clouds, light to moderate WSW winds and a chance for snow today. The bulk of this system will be affecting points north but we could pick up a few inches of snow tonight. Saturday will remain cloudy with a chance for snow. The main event for our area kicks in Saturday night into Sunday as a low pressure system with good jet support moves in off the coast of southern California. A foot or more of new snow seems likely at this time. Stay tuned.
General Conditions
The mid-week storm dumped a heavy load of dense snow on our fragile snowpack. The dense snow makes for creamy riding and allows you to make turns on lower angle slopes which is good because it's dangerous out there. In our travels yesterday we observed lots of natural avalanche activity on northerly aspects and we continued to experience collapsing on south facing slopes where we also observed very poor snowpack structure. Charlie Ramser was also up yesterday and he observed similar conditions in the northern part of the range. The recent load load has re-awakened buried persistent weak layers down under and we have problems all the way around the compass. Blowing and drifting snow has added more stress to these weak layers on northerly aspects, ands deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches up to 4' deep remain likely.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
In our travels yesterday we viewed many large avalanches on northerly aspects in Gold Basin that ran during the height of the storm cycle.
We also observed this somewhat anomalous avalanche that failed on a persistent weak layer on a SW aspect.
I'll update a complete list of avalanches in the La Sals soon.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow that developed during the cold dry period in mid November exists on all aspects and elevation bands in the La Sal range. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on any slope that harbors this buried PWL. In our travels yesterday, we continued to experience collapsing, and observed poor snowpack structure on southerly aspects. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has created additional stress, and human triggered avalanches up to 4' deep are likely. The snowpack is undergoing a severe test right now, and this process will continue into next week. Once this next load is applied, we'll have a better idea about the future of our snowpack. For now, all slopes steeper than 30 degrees should be avoided.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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