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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Tuesday morning, December 17, 2024
MODERATE danger remains on steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. Human-triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are possible. Areas of concern include steep convexities, cliff bands, and shallow rocky areas.
Most other terrain has generally LOW danger. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features remain possible, particularly on slopes with a northerly aspect.
Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Only three spots remain for Moab and San Juan County locals for our Backcountry 101 class on Jan 31-Feb 1. Click here to sign up and use the discount code MOAB2025.
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed to the trailhead. Surface is dirt down low, snowpacked and icy above. AWD with good tires recommended.
The road above the winter trailhead is officially closed to wheeled vehicles. Grooming will begin soon.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 46" Depth at Gold Basin: 23"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: 18 G25 S Temp: 30° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 121%
Weather
Decreasing cloud cover this morning will give way to another sunny day in the mountains. It is 30 degrees in Gold Basin, which is our high for the day. Strong winds out of the South are forecast to shift to the West and back off to 5-10 MPH today. The rest of the week will be sunny with high temperatures in the upper 20's. Our next chance for snow looks to be right around Christmas.
General Conditions
Conditions are getting a little rough out there. Strong Southerly winds over the past 12 hours will add insult to injury and further degrade the quality of skiing and riding. South-facing slopes were previously crusted over, and I did not observe any snow transport in my travels yesterday. I encountered some very slick surfaces on slopes that have been exposed to the sun and wind. I stomped around on some old, hard wind drifts that formed late last week and at this point, they seem to be locked in place. Your best bet for soft turns will be Northerly aspects near treeline and below. Yesterday, I found plenty of slopes below the treeline that have degraded into a pile of weak, sugary snow, and lack any sort of slab. Above the treeline a cohesive slab still exists over a weak layer of faceted snow and backcountry travelers must continue to evaluate the snow and terrain carefully.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Alpine terrain is a mix of scoured surfaces and old, hard wind crusts. I'm looking for quality turns elsewhere.
Recent Avalanches
See the avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure remains, comprised of a dense slab over weak, faceted snow. In specific areas above treeline, the slab is cohesive enough to produce avalanches. This structure is hard to trust, and the bottom line is that human-triggered avalanches remain possible. It is becoming less likely to trigger an avalanche each day, and slides will be pockety in nature. I don't expect the slides to be very wide, but if triggered, they will break to the ground up to two to three feet deep or more in areas that have been previously wind-loaded.
On some near treeline slopes, and many slopes below treeline, the slab has faceted through and has lost all cohesion. This is my strategy for quality turns, and to avoid today's avalanche problem.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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