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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 16, 2024
An isolated or MODERATE danger exists on steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-E-SE. Human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow, or a buried persistent weak layer are possible. Choose terrain wisely. Avoid rocky, radical terrain, thinner snowpack areas, slopes with steep convexities, and slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Most other terrain has generally LOW danger. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features remain possible, particularly on slopes with a northerly aspect.
Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Only three spots remain for Moab and San Juan County locals for our Backcountry 101 class on Jan 31-Feb 1. Click here to sign up and use the discount code MOAB2025.
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed to the trailhead. Surface is dirt down low, snowpacked and icy above. AWD with good tires recommended.
The road above the winter trailhead is officially closed to wheeled vehicles. Grooming will begin soon.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 46" Depth at Gold Basin: 23"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: W 5-10 Temp: 18° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 128%
Weather
After a several day run, ridge top winds have finally backed off into mostly single digit speeds out of the west. Today, look for mostly sunny skies, light westerly winds, and high temps in the upper 20's at 10,000'. The upcoming week remains dry for us with a gradual warming trend. Models continue to advertise a storm around Christmas.
General Conditions
Conditions are officially a mixed bag and with overall thin cover, it's getting harder to find good turns but there is still some soft snow out there in sheltered areas. Ridgetop winds last week stripped snow from south and westerly aspects while depositing snow on to leeward, north and easterly facing slopes. The sun has also greatly affected solar aspects and many are bare or crusted over. Structure remains poor with a weak, faceted layer beneath a slab, but stability tests have been generally non-reactive for some time and it's been nearly three weeks since the last significant snow and avalanche cycle.
Want some good news? It's still very early season and we are at 128% of normal water content. Overall depths above 10,000' are between 24 and 30 inches. The dense snow we received in November was perfect base building material and it remains strong and supportive. While many snowpacks around the region from the South San Juans to the Bear River Range near Logan have faceted through into piles of cohesion-less sugar, our snowpack still has quite a bit of body to it. Even the facets under the slab have consolidated and strengthened. If it doesn't start snowing by the new year, we can start to worry, but for now, sit tight, ride your bike or hike in the desert. It's all good.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Snow cover is still pretty good for this time of year. Especially on sheltered northerly facing terrain. The high peaks have been wind blasted.
Sunny slopes are growing quite thin, but then again, they often are.
Recent Avalanches
Travis Nauman and company over the weekend came across what is likely an old avalanche from the Nov 26 cycle. See the avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Slabs of wind drifted snow formed over the last several days have gained strength and will be stubborn, but not impossible to trigger today. Be on the lookout for them above treeline on slopes facing NW-N-E-SE. Wind slabs are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance, and they may sound or feel hollow underneath. Cracking is a sign of instability. Wind slabs exist in the same areas where the persistent weak layer problem remains a concern. More on that below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's becoming less likely to trigger an avalanche with each passing day but poor snowpack structure, comprised of a dense slab over weak, faceted snow remains. The faceted weak layer is showing signs of gaining strength, meaning that it's becoming more dense, and stability tests performed near treeline and below are generally non-reactive. This, plus the time that has expired since the last loading event and subsequent avalanche cycle, indicate growing stability.
Nevertheless, this classic combination of dense slab, over weaker, faceted snow, is very difficult for avalanche forecasters to trust. So how do we handle it? We either continue to avoid avalanche terrain altogether, or we dip our toes into it. We definitely avoid areas of steep, rocky, radical, and wind affected terrain. We don't just center punch the biggest lines. We choose moderately steep, planar slopes less than 35 degrees, and we avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities, or shallow points along slope margins and near rock outcrops. We remind ourselves that it's early season, that avalanches are still possible, and we proceed with great caution.
This snowpit sent in by Nate Ament (see his full observation here) is a great illustration of the current structure and it mimics pretty well what I found found yesterday on a N aspect. the midpack has a lot of body and strength to it. Even the four finger faceted layer is relatively strong. The weak snow at the base however, still remains a concern. But overall, our long range fate for the season is not yet sealed. Stay tuned!
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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