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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, November 30, 2019
Heavy snowfall accompanied by strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions! The avalanche danger is HIGH today on steep, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face primarily NW-N-E. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes at mid and upper elevations on all aspects where human triggered avalanches involving the most recent storm snow are likely. Backcountry travelers need to possess excellent route finding skills. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The road will likely be impassable today due to deep and drifted snow.
The First Annual Avalanche Awareness Week is December 2-7 We have a week full of fun and educational events planned. Check out the schedule here.
The annual free Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk will be held at the Grand County Library on Thursday, Dec 5 at 6:00 p.m. Hope to see you there!
Weather and Snow
A minor miracle seems to have occurred last night. I went to bed thinking the storm had wrapped up at 15" and then right around 11:00 p.m. it started getting after it, with periods of intense snowfall up to 4" an hour. We picked up another 18" bringing the total since Wed up to 33"! Winds throughout the storm event have blown in the 30-35 mph range with gusts into the 50's, first from the SE, then shifting to SW before coming around to the NW. They'll back off a little today but will still average 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 along ridge tops. Skies will clear today and it's going to be cold. High temps at 10,000' will be in the mid-teens with a wind chill factor of -15. Sunday will be sunny and warmer with dry conditions through Monday.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human-triggered avalanches within the deep, new snow will be likely today on steep slopes on all aspects. Avalanches could fail on a density change or weak layer within the new snow or at the old snow interface, and they will be possible even on slopes that were bare before the storm. Natural avalanches within the storm snow occur during the period of greatest snowfall intensity, but storm snow avalanches can be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider for a few days after a storm. Avoid steep slopes today and give the new snow time to stabilize.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds and heavy snowfall over the past few days have created deep and dangerous drifts of unstable snow, primarily on slopes facing W-N-E. Drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance, and they will be liberally distributed over the landscape today. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
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